- Complete strategic failure
Time has come for Washington, finally, to accept reality in Afghanistan. The gift of democracy, so people could decide their own fate even in such a war ravaged country, was all the Americans had left to justify the long war. That, of course, is why the carnage before and during Afghanistan’s legislative elections was the perfect reminder of just where that strategy stands. Close to 200 dead in hundreds of attacks on election day, on top of the gun attack that nearly took out the US commanding general and shut down Kandahar, only proves once again that the Taliban are constantly improving in their capacity to plan and carry out large scale, coordinated attacks more or less throughout the country.
Surely any joy Zalmay Khalilzad’s Qatar initiative triggered would have completely subsided by now. The attacks also prove that whatever arrangement is reached, if at all, will have to accommodate more Taliban demands than Washington or Kabul would like. But what can they do? It is the insurgents, after all, that have the initiative. And the low voter turnout showed just how fed up ordinary Afghans have become of walking into suicide attacks all the time. President Ghani could not, unfortunately, answer tough questions about voter safety when he urged all Afghans to defy Taliban threats.
That straight forward fact of the matter is that the Afghan occupation has become unmanageable. By staying longer the Americans will only throw more good money after bad money, not to mention the drain on personnel, making it simply a very, very bad investment going forward. And there just doesn’t seem to be a face-saving way of exiting – like in Iraq, where they made all tribal chiefs shake hands before leaving them to their fate. The Trump administration now faces the devil’s alternative. Stay and extend losses or leave and lose face and the war?
