BEIRUT: The clock is ticking to implement a Russian-Turkish deal for the Syrian rebel region of Idlib, but its terms remain hazy and little has changed on the ground.
The accord, reached on September 17, aims to stave off a massive regime assault on the last major rebel bastion by creating a 15 to 20 kilometre buffer zone ringing the area.
All rebels in the demilitarised zone must withdraw heavy arms by October 10, and radical groups must leave by October 15. But as the deadline draws closer, there has been no indication either condition is being implemented.
The main Ankara-backed rebel alliance, the National Liberation Front, cautiously welcomed the agreement but has denied beginning to pull out any of its heavy weapons. And the region’s most powerful force, the jihadist-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has yet to announce its stance.
“On the ground, essentially, there’s no movement. There’s no handover of weapons or territory,” said Haid Haid, a research fellow at the London-based Chatham House.
What is happening, however, is a flurry of negotiations among Russia, Turkey, rebel groups and hardliners to hash out the accord’s finer details and bring Idlib’s jihadists on board.
The thorny questions being discussed include precisely where the buffer would be established, who would patrol it, and whether weapons systems would be simply re-stationed in other rebel zones or handed over to Ankara. Once those stumbling blocks are sorted out, Haid told AFP, implementation can be quick. “In my view, the deal will be implemented on time, but with some amendments,” he said.
The deal was announced in the Russian resort of Sochi after a tete-a-tete between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
It was welcomed by world powers, relief agencies and the United Nations, which all hoped it would avert a feared humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions. But apart from deadlines, very few details were made public.
“One possibility is that Turkey and Russia already agreed on all the details but did not announce them,” said Haid. “The second possibility is they agreed on the broad outlines without details,” allowing Ankara to untangle the knots with Idlib’s factions, he said.
On Wednesday, Putin said Moscow was still “working in solidarity with Turkey” on Idlib. “We see that they, too, have the most serious attitude towards the deal and are fulfilling their obligations,” he said.
