- Implementation will require three phases
The future of Pakistan and the health of its economy undoubtedly hinges on its transformation from an agricultural to industrial country. The solution to most of our intractable socio-economic difficulties is inextricably linked to this shift. CPEC provides a conduit to that transformation and Pakistan surely has taken a great stride in that direction by becoming part of this mega-economic initiative of the Chinese government. The sustainability of this qualitative shift mandates collective support of all national stakeholders to turn this dream project of Pak-China friendship into an everlasting joint enterprise for shared destiny and prosperity and a monument of eternal Sino-Pak ties.
It is universally recognised and established fact that no nation can leapfrog into the elite club of developed nations unless it invests in all elements of the infrastructure components, as there are no short cuts to economic progress. All modern growth models invariably rely on development of infrastructure and the resultant industrialisation as imperative ingredients and catalysts for a sustained economic growth of a country. The phenomenal economic prosperity and industrial development in the Asian countries such as China, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia during the last three decades is a ranting testimony of this modern reality. Attainment of high level growth is unimaginable without industrialisation and gradual lessening of dependence on the agriculture sector.
By becoming part of the CPEC, Pakistan is poised not only to make up for the lost opportunities but also to become an economic power house within the next two decades. Apart from radically changing the dynamics of regional connectivity and trade it is going to act as a catalyst in the process of transition from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy. CPEC is a mix of infrastructure projects, energy producing units and industrial zones along the corridor routes. The development of infrastructure under the CPEC will lay a firm foundation for industrialisation. CPEC has been acknowledged as a perfect recipe for lifting the economic profile of the countries which are part of the initiative world-wide. Even the UN has recognised its economic potential and a collateral outcome of promoting peace through economic interdependence. To ensure transparency in the implementation of CPEC, China and Pakistan have also signed an agreement for joint audit of selected projects. The agreement has been inked between audit authorities of both the countries.
The third phase of the LTP will mature by 2030. The endogenous mechanisms for indigenous, inclusive and sustainable economic growth will be in place in Pakistan
Gawadar Port, three routes of the corridor and energy projects are the engines of growth. Hopefully the special industrial zones to be set up at Bostan in Balochistan, Rashakai in KPK, Dhabeji in Sind, Sheikhupura in Punjab, Moqpondas in GB, Bhimber in AJK, Mohmand in FATA besides two projects of the federal government at Islamabad and Port Qasim would also nudge the process of industrialisation in the country. The coming on stream of the energy producing projects by the end of 2018 and the plans to generate another 30,000 MW of electricity by 2030 will surely help not only to overcome the present energy crisis but would also cater to the future energy requirements of the country.
The scope of the CPEC was further widened at the sixth meeting of the Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) held in Beijing on 28-29 December 2016 with the inclusion of Bhasha Dam, Peshawar-Karachi railway line, Karachi Circular Railway, Orang Line Train for all provincial capitals, Keti Bander and special economic zones and three more energy projects in Sindh. Consequently the size of the CPEC in monetary terms has been jacked up to $57 billion. This development took place as a consequence of the participation of the chief ministers of KPK, Balochistan, Sindh and GB in the meeting of the JCC, who were invited by the federal government to advocate their case for more development projects in their provinces.
Though the CPEC is nationally owned initiative but it has come under criticism by some political elements within the country as well as its detractors at the international level. It is however gratifying to note that unruffled by these developments and the political events in Pakistan the Chinese government exhibited unflinching resolve in the 7th JCC meeting held on November 21, 2017 to successfully implement all the CPEC projects in a timely manner. The 7th JCC also officially approved the Long Term Plan (LTP) of CPEC. The LTP provides a conceptual framework for CPEC up to 2030; it also gives a framework for the industrialisation of Pakistan. The government of Pakistan consulted provinces, federal ministries and their respective technical groups in regards to LTP. The seven salient feature of the LTP are connectivity, energy, trade and industrial parks, agricultural development and poverty alleviation, tourism, cooperation in areas concerning people’s livelihood and non-governmental exchanges and financial cooperation. The spirit of the LTP is best captured in the following statement, “CPEC will greatly speed up the industrialization and urbanisation process in Pakistan and help it grow into a highly inclusive, globally competitive and prosperous country capable of providing high-quality life to its citizens.”
Connectivity is the cornerstone of development. It increases the flow of goods, information and people across regions. That is why an integrated transport system is central to the LTP, as envisaged in the original CPEC plan.
In the energy sector, both countries will enhance cooperation in the fields of oil and gas, electricity and power grids. The focus is on thermal power, hydropower, coal gasification and renewable power generation and modernising power transmission networks. CPEC has already addressed the major energy bottleneck in Pakistan. Almost over half of the 10,000 MW energy added recently to the national grid comes from CPEC.
According to the LTP, the implementation of CPEC will take place in three phases, with clear goals. In the first phase, that is – by 2020 – the major bottlenecks in Pakistan’s socio-economic development will be completely addressed. The second phase will be done by 2025, all the infrastructure of CPEC will be ready and all industrial projects will have been completed. As a result, CPEC will have a major impact on the livelihoods of people living along the corridor.
The third phase of the LTP will mature by 2030. The endogenous mechanisms for indigenous, inclusive and sustainable economic growth will be in place in Pakistan. As per the LTP: “CPEC’s role in stimulating economic growth in Central Asia and South Asia will be brought into holistic play, and South Asia shall grow into an international economic zone with global influence”.
As is evident CPEC is pivotal to the future economic development of Pakistan and provides her a unique opportunity to become a hub of economic activity in the region and beyond. It is encouraging that in view of the importance of CPEC, the civilian and military leadership have an unflinching commitment to ensure timely implementation of this economic initiative and putting Pakistan on the road to transformation into an industrialised country.