Various polls predict no party will win majority in GE-2018

  • Surveys show neck and neck competition between PML-N and PTI

LAHORE: With elections just around the corner, various nationwide surveys carried out by research organisations and publications reveal that ‘no party will win a majority in the July 25 elections’.

In order to gain a majority, a party needs 137 of the 272 elected National Assembly seats. Moreover,  70 seats for women and minorities are awarded proportionally based on the voting percentages.

According to the surveys conducted it is safe to say that there is a neck-to-neck competition between Imran Khan led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Although, there is a three per cent possibility of error in all the following surveys that were conducted.

A survey by Pulse Consultants shows that PTI is ahead by 30 per cent, whereas PML-N is at 27 per cent. Similarly, Herald Magazine survey indicated PTI ahead by 29 per cent and PMl-N at 25 per cent.

Similarly, these surveys reflect that Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto did not manage to secure as many seats as the other two mainstream parties, thus ranking mostly below them along with other political parties.

Pulse Consultant survey shows PPP at 17 per cent whereas the other political parties ahead by 26 per cent; whereas, the Herald Magazine survey shows the other parties ahead of PPP by 26 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.

Having said that, Gallup Pakistan survey indicated a twist with their results as the ‘other’ political parties top the survey with 33 per cent, PML-N with 26 per cent, PTI with 25 per cent and PPP at the bottom with 16 per cent.

A survey by Currency Market Associates (CMKA) shows similar results as Pulse and Herald where PTI is ahead by 017 seats as compared to PML-N with 79. Moreover, other political parties have secured 56 seats and PPP only managed with 30.

Topline and Credit Suisse also indicate PTI ahead with 85-95 seats and 92 seats, respectively. PML-N with 80-90 and 73 seats.

The other political parties are ahead with 47-72 and 73 seats as compared to PPP with 35-40 and 34 seats as per the Topline and Credit Suisse surveys, subsequently.

All these surveys are a clear indicator that none of the parties that are in the run for elections has a majority win, however, they can emerge as a coalition in that case.