Pakistan – On the verge of change?

BY UBAIDULLAH

Wednesday, July 25, 2018, may turn out to be another historic day in the political history of Pakistan. Well and truly on the path of democracy and for the first time in country’s history, third successive parliament has completed its tenure and general elections are being held under an interim government.

The emergence of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on October 30, 2011, as a third national force in a running political process, is unprecedented in the 140 years of party-based democratic history of the sub-continent. It changed the entire landscape of Pakistani politics.

Despite high expectations, PTI could not do well in 2013 elections at national level. It did get second highest (7.6 million) votes and managed to form a coalition government in KP and had an opposition leader in Punjab Assembly. It had no representative in Balochistan and few in Sindh. PPP, being the second largest party had the opposition leader’s slot in NA.

PTI has been on a rise, especially in Punjab in recent months and PML-N looks to be on the decline.

It is widely believed that Punjab, being the largest share of 148 (now reduced to 141) seats out of general 272 NA seats, is the main battle area and winner of Punjab is to rule Pakistan.

NA-1 (Chitral-I) to NA-65 (Chakwal-II) comprises of KP, FATA, Islamabad and Potohar regions. PTI, along with its seat adjustments, is likely to win 45 of these seats. NA-66 (Jhelum-I) to NA-144 (Okara-IV) have 80 Central Punjab seats, the heartland and bastion of PML-N. With more and more electables joining PTI and local landscape changing fast, PTI can surprise many by getting 30 odd seats in Central Punjab.

NA-145 (Pakpattan-I) to NA 195 (Rajanpur-III) has 51 South Punjab seats. With current ‘merger’ of Janubi Punjab Sooba Mahaz with PTI and traditional open trends of this area, it looks like PTI and allies can win 35+ seats from here. In Sindh and Balochistan, PTI has not much chance and may win 2-3 seats. Therefore, it can be the leading party with 100-110+ seats after July 25.

In Sindh, the anti-PPP alliance of GDA/PTI/PSP/MMA/local Independents etc. is poised to give PPP a very tough challenge in ten years. From non-urban, rural/small cities 35 NA seats of interior Sindh, PPP may lose up to 10. PSP can be a surprise package as its chairman Mustafa Kamal is confident enough to predict on TV to win 20+ NA and 50+ provincial assembly seats.

Overall, there can be a scenario that after July 25, PTI can have governments in the centre, KP and Punjab, whereas anti-PPP forces can combine together to form Sindh government. In Balochistan, as usual, there can be a coalition government, most probably led by newly formed BAP. Of course, PPP, PML-N, MMA etc. can provide a formidable and tough opposition to any government in the next tenure.