- What is clear and what remains vague
There is an agreement among all election surveys that the PTI has made a headway in its public rating. Where the surveys differ is the extent of the gains and whether they would enable the PTI to form the government after July 25 polls.
The PTI is likely to better its position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh. Punjab will however constitute the real battleground where one of the two major parties will meet its Waterloo.
The PTI has considerably improved its electoral standing in Punjab. Among the major factors is the induction of several electables into the party. The turncoats have come mostly from the PML-N. There have been complaints that the agencies have helped the PTI in the recruitment. The PML-N believes that the courts, caretaker government, ECP and NAB have all acted against it as partisans. Shahbaz Sharif has claimed in his latest press conference that the party is being denied a level playing field.
The PML-N has ruled Punjab for a decade since 2008. While it significantly reduced load shedding and undertook and completed a number of eye-catching mega development projects, its critics including Imran Khan have challenged the PML-N’s priorities. The burden of Imran Khan’s campaign has however been the Sharif family’s corruption.
The PML-N faces a number of handicaps. It seems to have lost most of its South Punjab constituencies. Nawaz Sharif has been disqualified. What is more he has been jailed at a time when he was leading the party’s campaign along with Maryam. Shahbaz Sharif who is heading the party’s campaign is not a crowd puller. The party complains that hundreds of its workers have been arrested ahead of the polls.
The PML-N seemingly still retains an upper hand in the central and north Punjab which elect the bulk of the legislators from the province. What is more the differential in the percentage of votes cast in in 2013 for the two parties was too large to cover easily. The PTI is therefore not going to have a cake walk.
