- Setting up judgment day
Not returning is not really an option for Nawaz or Maryam. Not only would that end Nawaz’s political relevance forever – not that there’s much left – but there is also the chance of the government getting Interpol to drag the disgraced PM back in an even worse manner. Plus running would also rule out any chance of appeal; which requires formal arrest since an absconder has no right of audience before a court. So, however they play it to party workers, the flight back on Friday the 13th is more necessity than bravado.
And it’s not very likely that the father and daughter would be able to wave at throngs of outraged PML-N loyalists lamenting a grave injustice against them. If initial news reports are correct, they are more likely to be arrested upon arrival at the airport, and then moved to jail. The only legal option, filing an appeal at the high court, is unlikely to do much good since no two-judge high court bench is unlikely to find much that escaped a bigger, five-judge SC bench earlier. For all intents and purposes, there is little Nawaz can really do except await the other two verdicts from the prison cell.
Yet his return is crucial for PML-N. Regardless of the arrest, it will breathe fresh life into workers long fed the grand military-judiciary conspiracy narrative. And with Shahbaz’s elevation having done little good for the party so far, Nawaz’s presence – even from jail – could help turn the narrative in the party’s favour come July 25. Hopefully in this reaction PML-N will not go down the path of disturbance. With elections so close any unrest will have far reaching consequences. And the capital market, just preparing to return to calm after two years of Panama hangover, will flare up once again. Much still hangs in the balance, therefore, as Nawaz and Maryam make their way back to Pakistan.