- Market protests underline deeper economic plight
Just as it seemed that Iran’s troubled economy would bounce back after the 2015 nuclear deal, with lifting of sanctions and release of billions of frozen dollars, that otherwise master of business deals, but lately reckless scourge of sound global treaties, President Donald Trump, abruptly ended the Iranian dream by his unilateral withdrawal from the hard-won arrangement in May 2018, much to the dismay of friends and foes alike. Sunday’s closure of shops in Tehran’s mobile and electronic markets, and bigger demonstrations by traders in the Grand Bazaar on Monday, while not remotely comparable to the massive disturbances of December 2017 in 75 cities, which turned from a campaign against economic hardships into a political movement for regime change, should still give sleepless nights to the Iranian leadership, for the underlying causes of financial disgruntlement are likely to go from bad to worse, as the renewed, intense US sanctions begin to bite.
Rapidly rising prices and unemployment distress the working and middle class, the Rial is in free fall, from 42,890 to the dollar at end 2017, to present 90,000, and with hard US currency difficult to come by, importers and traders are also hard hit, resulting in meltdown of economic activity. Although ideologically, the Iranian revolution has weathered many political and economic storms, the present circumstances are unique, Iran’s near isolation in the Middle East, with powerful player Saudi Arabia aligning with nuclear but still insecure arch-enemy Israel, resource-draining expedition in Syria, the clerical leadership’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, its alleged secret nuclear ambitions and Trump’s tunnel vision, have brought it in the crosshairs of myriad enemies. And remember US National Security Advisor John Bolton, and others of his sullen crusading ilk, itching for regime change in Iran. Trump’s pressure tactics which seemingly succeeded in the case of intransigent North Korea, may force Iran, despite wounded vanity, to the negotiating table, but the snagis that US ‘global arrogance’ can also result in hardliners and Revolutionary Guards gaining ascendency in Tehran. Pakistan should also factor in US financial clout being employed for political arm-twisting or settling scores, as in the FATF grey-listing push, and set its economic house in order, fast.
