- Peace on the horizon?
First recognised Afghan government-Taliban face-to-face talks in 17 years and the good will surrounding the Eid ceasefire are all unprecedented and appreciated steps forward, yet it is still too early for events to signal an end to the long war anytime soon. Just as Taliban fighters were done celebrating Eid and taking selfies with government officials and civilians, Trump’s new Afghan war commander Gen Austin Miller was debating the merits of his troop surge with Senate, among other things. But the only way the Taliban will carry on with any talks, as they have made clear year after year, is if a swift exit of “occupying forces” is guaranteed.
There is nothing new, really, in the latest surge that President Trump has trumpeted so loudly. Increasing potency of troops on ground while pursuing parallel negotiations is a novelty that goes back beyond the Petraeus and McChrystal days. Yet each time they dented the insurgency enough for the Taliban to consider talks seriously, the matter would dissolve very quickly when it came to continued US presence. There is a good chance, therefore, that this effort might also involve everyone going round in circles one more time.
It would, no doubt, be very hard to unwind the US presence in Afghanistan all of a sudden. Yet it is difficult to understand what continued feet on the ground is going to achieve; since none of the principal aims – victory, nation building, training Afghan National Army – have been achieved. Perhaps the US, just like the Taliban, should also review its long term strategy in Afghanistan. It hasn’t built up a political system strong enough to survive on its own, nor an army that can secure much of the country. And much of the infrastructure brought down by the war still lies in ruins. A reset on all sides could be just what is required.