Indian Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s extensive talks with her Russian counterpart General Sergey Shoygu and Industry and Trade minister Denis Manturov in Moscow on the sidelines of the VII Moscow Conference on International Security have raised hackles in the US. Nirmala was wooing her Russian counterparts because Russia had decided to court Pakistan after Narendra Modi’s overtures to the USA. Apparently irked by the Indian advances towards Donald Trump, Putin apparently decided to build closer ties with Islamabad much to the chagrin of New Delhi.
Russo-Indian defence ties have been phenomenal in the past and for Narendra Modi to have suddenly become an aficionado of Donald Trump raised alarm bells in Moscow. In an attempt to appease Putin, Nirmala Sitharaman tried to salvage Russo-Indian ties during her visit to Moscow on 4-6 April, 2018. This scribe was invited to the same event and Moscow Defence head honchos were a trifle cold towards Nirmala Sitharaman.
Defence analysts in India, apparently to justify their courtship with the US, had lately started criticising them, stating that the supply of critical spares and equipment from Russia takes a long time, affecting maintenance of military systems procured from that country.
India has been pressing Russia to adopt a liberal approach in sharing technology for components of major defence platforms as it was critical to keep them in operational readiness. The issue is understood to have figured during Sitharaman’s talks with both General Shoygu and Manturov.
Both sides agreed to expedite negotiations for various military platforms, defence sources said. Nirmala also made a bid for the nearly Rs40,000-crore deal to procure S-400 Triumf air defence missile system. Russia is still sore at India having cancelled the F-35 fifth generation fighter aircraft deal so it may be dragging its feet over the Triumf air defence missile system deal.
After India’s standoff with China over Doklam last year, in which New Delhi blinked first, India wants to procure the long-range missile systems to tighten its air defence mechanism, particularly when China has been ramping up its military maneuvering along the nearly 4,000 km Sino-India border.
What New Delhi does not realise is that one cannot run with the hare as well as hunt with the hounds. Buying defence equipment from the US as well as trying to procure arms from Russia may no longer be possible for India.
Pursuing the Triumf deal may well ensnare India into CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). CAATSA became a US federal legislation after being signed into law by President Donald Trump on August 2, 2017. CAATSA seeks to impose sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Under CAATSA, five Russian entities including Russian intelligence agencies and 19 individuals were being targeted in response to charges that they tried to influence the 2016 US presidential elections.
Interestingly, on March 16, 2018, eleven US senators wrote a letter to the US State Department asking for imposition of sanctions on countries that buy the Russian S-400 system. Besides India, four more countries China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, are keen to acquire the S-400.
India is expected to buy five S-400 systems from the Russians; the delivery of which will be completed in 54 months. One of the most powerful missile systems in existence, the S-400 is capable of firing three types of missiles, creating a layered defence, which can counter the complete range of airborne threats including bombers, stealth fighters, missiles and drones at a range of up to 600 km and up to 30 km altitude and a capacity to simultaneously engage up to 36 targets at one time. Triumf will be a game changer in the region.
US-Russia bilateral ties have been severely hit by a poison gas attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter in UK’s Salisbury on March 4, 2018, which the western powers suspect to have been engineered by Russia. This has led to a spate of expulsions of diplomats by the Western powers as well as by Russia.
Although Donald Trump has been soft on India in the near past, it will have to take action against New Delhi if it finalises the Triumf deal with Moscow.
Responding to a query on whether India’s planned buying of the S-400 will attract provisions under CAATSA, Pentagon chief spokesperson Dana W. White was quoted as telling reporters: “I can’t comment on pending legislation. But what I can say is that, ultimately, those decisions are sovereign decisions, and so those are decisions that India has to make for itself.” Donald Trump’s hard line with Putin will force his hand if Narendra Modi crosses the line towards Moscow.
Nirmala Sitharaman, on the other hand, has been trying her level best to promote military technical cooperation projects between the two countries, including measures to promote India-Russia joint industrial activities under the ‘Make in India’ programme, especially for after-sales support. To sweeten the deal, Russia was invited to participate in the Chennai Defence Expo 2018. She also reviewed the roadmap of military cooperation involving exercises, training, exchange of visits, and India’s participation in International Army Games to be held in Russia later this year. Readers may recall that a vision document, issued after the talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, had said both countries decided to work towards a “qualitatively higher level of military-to-military cooperation”.
The facts remain that India has lost ground in the military ties its forefathers had built with USSR and Russia because of its greed and keenness to cosy up to the US.
Russia, which had supported Pakistan’s entry into the SCO and has held war games and military exercises with Pakistan as well is in the process of selling defence equipment to Islamabad, will not give up its ties or deals with Pakistan at the behest of New Delhi. It must be remembered that when Pakistan got into the JF-17 Thunder multirole fighter aircraft joint venture with China, India tried to prevail over Moscow to stop the supply of the RD-39 engines of Russian origin for the aircraft. Moscow had shrugged India off. That was half a decade ago; the ties between Islamabad and Moscow have cemented and will grow even stronger. New Delhi will only shoot itself in the foot by falling into the CAATSA trap if it pursues the S-400 deal with Russia.
