- Is he coming back?
With the elections round the corner, the entire media is focused on the political activities of two mainstream parties i.e. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), as these two are expected to walk away with a major chunk of the public votes. While the political arenas across Pakistan are either enchanted with the slogans of “I I, PTI”, or “Ik vari fer, Sher”, one that is being underestimated, overshadowed, and perhaps not given due attention and consideration is “agli bari phir zardari”. Analysing the current nation-wide political scenario, however, this slogan holds most weight.
Whereas the PPP is being looked, particularly by the media, as the least favourite party (of the Big Three), let us admit the fact that it is an underdog going into the elections, and eventually, at the end of the day, will hold the power to tilt the election results.
But the question that boggles the mind is that how could the PPP even be in a position as strong as we are talking about here? Especially considering the declining publicity, and public opinion of the party amid the completion of its five-year tenure back in 2013 which was clearly evident from the results of general elections 2013.
Let us attempt to understand the possible reason/s that might lead to the fulfilment of the aforementioned political prophecy.
The first and the foremost reason would be that PPP, unlike other political rivals (particularly PML-N and the PTI) is not being led by a politician, rather it is being led by the politician, someone we refer to as Asif Ali Zardari. The former president, whether loved or hated, is recognised across the board as the most astute political figure in Pakistani politics. Perhaps a singular trait that makes Zardari stand out is flexibility. Politics is all about possibilities, and possibilities can only be explored with a flexible attitude. To quote an example, when asked recently about any possible alliance with the PTI in the general elections (already ruled out by the PTI), Zardari replied, “Necessity is the mother of invention,” opening his arms to embrace the possibility; something that most politicians, subject to their adamant political thought, lack.
For any party to form a government in the center, therefore, political alliances are a necessity. And this is precisely where the Zardari-led PPP comes into the spot light.
Not to forget, the PPP co-chairman is the ultimate opportunist. Where other politicians are reluctant, Zardari grabs opportunities by the throat, making the most of them in favour of his political party, and the ideology it embraces. With the divide of MQM into various factions, as the largest city of Pakistan i.e. Karachi, looks to possible political alternatives, and solutions to its apparently never-ending problems, the acute politician seized the opportunity, and has engaged the city with his party’s political campaigning; that too when no other political party seems interested, or in other words, lacks the political wisdom to see, and seize the opportunity that lies in the city of lights.
A pre-elections analysis, above all, reflects the PPP, and its leadership, from a position of strength. Political analysts, and commentators across the board all agree on one thing that although the real contest lies between the PML-N and the PTI, and both the parties would be scoring high in terms of votes they win, however, none of the two parties is likely to acquire a simple (two-third) majority in the parliament, which happens to be a mandatory pre-requisite to form a central government. For any party to form a government in the center, therefore, political alliances are a necessity. And this is precisely where the Zardari-led PPP comes into the spot light.
It is pretty evident that the PPP will win over its ancestral stronghold, Sindh, and as it has already started to fill in the political gaps created by the division of MQM in Karachi, is also expected to come up strong in the cosmopolitan city. Not to forget that PPP also has a strong presence in South Punjab, and can grab some critical seats from there. Same can be expected from Baluchistan as well.
All of the above, combined with the reliance of other two favorites i.e. PML-N and the PTI to form an alliance in order to gain federal power, Zardari and Co not only attain the political strength to tilt the electoral results, but also gain the advantage to negotiate from a position of strength with their political counterparts cum future allies their positions in the upcoming government.
Let’s face it, if Zardari can nominate his candidate for Senate chairmanship out of nothing by striking an alliance with the PTI, given a situation as described above, the nation can well witness another five-year tenure of the political genius, either as president or who knows maybe PM, with PPP calling the shots.
Stay tuned for more that is to come!