A hung parliament

Or a warped system?

Despite general elections round the corner, a wave of uncertainty grips the country. According to the constitution, June 5 when the National and Provincial assemblies complete their five-year terms polls should be held within 60 days.

Although no one believes that elections will not be held at all there are only a few takers who think they will be held on time. Of course the problem of delimitations according to the fresh census looms large on the horizon.

A lot of legislators contend that their respective constituencies were inexplicably mutilated in fresh delimitations. That is why the COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa hinted a technical delay of a few weeks when he met with media persons a few weeks ago.

But apart from technical reasons there are quite a few imponderables that are queering the pitch. The manner in which pre-elections political alignments are shifting have given rise to apprehensions that political engineering is taking place according to a well-conceived agenda.

Nonetheless in this backdrop, there is no gainsaying the fact that pre elections politics have been brought down to their lowest common denominator

It is obvious the PML-N is at the receiving end of the stick. Reportedly, quite a few legislators belonging to the ruling party are all set to jump ship. It is contended that they are just waiting for the right signal from their handlers.

That a vast swath of perspective legislators wants to be on the winning side is ingrained in our political culture. And it is being increasingly made clear that the winner is not going to be the PML-N.

Easy come easy go. Most of whom who have left or are ready to leave are the so-called ‘electables’. They, as independents or as members of the PML-Q had joined the ruling party to graze in greener pastures.

Suddenly Marvi Memon enjoying the perks of BISP (Benazir Income Support Program) has discovered the sycophantic culture within the PML-N. It took her four long years to come to this conclusion. Previously she had been serving her boss president General Pervez Musharraf with the same tenacity.

The party of choice for new entrants seems to be the PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) that is generally perceived to be emerging as the new Kings Party. The latest entrant is an old PPP stalwart Nadeem Afzal Chan.

The Khan has opened his stable doors wide open for turncoats. He has even invited the dissident PML-N stalwart Nisar Ali Khan to join.

He wants the Junoobi Suba Mahaz headed by Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar to become an ally of the PTI. But the Makhdoom from Rahim Yar Khan quintessentially an establishment politician will do what the powers-that-be tell him to.

Nonetheless in this backdrop, there is no gainsaying the fact that pre elections politics have been brought down to their lowest common denominator. It has become a no holds barred game to grab the coveted prize, the end justifying the means.

The PML-N is reaping what it had originally sowed. These people had joined the Sharifs to enjoy the fruits of power, and are leaving perhaps on the nudging of the same persons who made them originally join the ruling party.

Nevertheless in the emerging scenario to form a government at the federal level is not going to be a shoe in for any of the contenders. That it is going to be a hung parliament where no single party gets an absolute majority is the conventional wisdom.

According to this line of thinking the ubiquitous establishment believes that parties especially the PML-N after getting absolute majorities have played havoc with the system. Sharif before being ousted by general Musharraf in 1999 was obsessed with his heavy mandate.

He tried to emasculate the whole democratic system in order to make himself Amir al-Mu’minin (Commander of the Faithful). It is however another matter that he was nipped in the bud by the then military leadership.

This time around Sharif sidelined the parliament to the extent that it led to his un-ceremonial exit courtesy the apex court.

Resultantly a hybrid system is being engineered. According to this scenario no party will emerge as the undisputed victor. The support of the independents and groups being created on the basis of regionalism, ethnicity and religion will determine which party will be in a position to form the government at the centre.

Of course the wild card in the pack remains the largest province – the Punjab. Despite everything the PML-N is still the strongest here.

The Khan has opened his stable doors wide open for turncoats. He has even invited the dissident PML-N stalwart Nisar Ali Khan to join

Sharif, the PML-N supremo since his ouster has played his cards rather well. Through his well-attended political rallies and winning virtually all bye-elections held in the past one-year or so he has proved that the PML-N is still a formidable force.

It was guesstimated that at least 80 MNAs were ready to ditch the ruling party. But that has not happened till now. Only 15 have so far jumped ship. Perhaps once the caretaker government is in place, it is being hoped the process will hasten.

The younger Sharif is the contender for premiership in the next elections. However his impeccable credentials, as a pro establishment politician and a doer notwithstanding, things might not pan out as planned.

For starters unless he decides to clearly break away from his brother he will not be considered an independent player. The stark reality remains that the party revolves around the elder Sharif, who is the main vote catcher for the PML-N.

So far as the Khan is concerned, he is winning well-deserved kudos for giving show cause notices to 20 legislators of the KP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) Assembly for selling their votes during the recent Senate elections. However the ultimate battleground for him remains the Punjab.

With the PPP virtually out of reckoning in the province, it is the PML-N and the PTI’s slugfest that will determine who will form the government at the centre.

The much-desired consensus on the complexion of the caretaker governments is still lacking. Apparently the PML-N has left it to the PPP to evolve an understanding with the rest of the opposition, as it does not want the matter to go to the ECP (Election Commission of Pakistan). Reportedly the PTI is bargaining hard by using its veto power in Punjab and KP.

Tinkering with elections in the end analysis could have disastrous results for the country. The elections process should not only be unencumbered but also be seen as such, for all to see.