- Little possibility of a spectacular flameout of PML-N
Imran Khan says his Lahore rally will change the course of history. Paraphrased in concrete terms, this means the rally will turn the tables on the PML-N government and create conditions that would bring the PTI to power. Imran Khan is no doubt a crowd puller. But so is the Nawaz-Maryam duo that has held big rallies not only in Punjab but also in Peshawar, Haripur and Abbottabad. Imran Khan should have known by now that rallies are not enough to change the electoral calculus. During the last five years Khan has put up several fantastic shows of strength in Punjab without producing a proportionate impact on electoral politics as shown by PML-N’s victory in most by-polls including the one in Lodhran.
Those who want to replace the PML-N government face a hard task. At the end of 2017 the PML-N had 188 votes in NA, more than simple majority. Despite efforts from several quarters only 15 MNAs have so far been persuaded to resign from the party. Compared to PML-N, the PPP secured only 47 seats in NA and PTI 32. The major strong point of the PML-N is its hold over the local governments in Punjab. What is more the party has over the years developed a relatively better election machinery.
The PML-N’s opponents had hoped that Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification by the Supreme Court would lead to a reduction in public support. If the GT road march and subsequent rallies are an indicator, this has failed to happen. Now it is being hoped that once Sharif is sentenced for corruption this will bring down his popularity graph. Others expect that once the caretaker setup is in place, there would be mass defections from the party.
There is a need on the part of the ECP and SC to ensure that no gross irregularities are seen to have taken place before and during the elections. Any flagrant interference in the electoral process would polarise society, make polling results controversial and cause slippage in the prestige of the institutions. Observer teams both local and foreign should be allowed to monitor the elections to ensure the credibility of the exercise.
