Strikes against Syria: what possible impacts?

PARIS: Western strikes against the Syrian regime in retaliation for the use of chemical weapons could affect Bashar al-Assad’s military apparatus and push Russia to return to the negotiating table, but also spark tensions in the region, according to experts.

US President Donald Trump has been weighing his military options, British Prime Minister Theresa May held an emergency cabinet meeting and French leader Emmanuel Macron said one of his aims in Syria was to “remove the regime’s chemical attack capabilities.”

What military impact?

Depending on the strength of the strikes, Bashar al-Assad’s regime could be deterred from resorting to chemical weapons in the future.

The difficulty lies in finding the right balance between a symbolic strike — like that launched by Trump in April 2017 after a sarin gas attack — heavier, targeted raids and a major operation to secure regime change.

Michel Duclos, former French ambassador in Syria and special advisor at the Montaigne Institute think tank, told AFP: “You have to hit hard enough to make sense but not too much not provoke an escalation, or create a misunderstanding about exactly what you want.”

If the strikes are aimed at destroying the chemical capabilities of the regime, as suggested by Macron, “we can go very far”, Duclos said, warning against one-off strikes.

What political effect?

The West still hopes for a return to the negotiating table and a dialogue with Russia over the crisis, despite a downturn in relations after former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter was found poisoned in England. Russia denies any involvement while London blames Moscow.

Ziad Majed, political scientist at the American University of Paris, said: “If the strikes are large-scale and the Russians understand that the West is steadfast… there may be a political dynamic to find a compromise.”

What geopolitical risks?

Plans for Western strikes should carefully avoid Russian troops stationed in Syria to avoid any risk of military escalation with Moscow.

However, in an increasingly complex conflict involving many foreign players, “Western strikes also risk playing into a regional war that is centred on Iran,” warned Julien Barnes-Dacey from the European Council on Foreign Relations in London.

Israel is determined to prevent any lasting military settlement of Iranians in Syria and has already conducted operations against Iranian positions in the country.

“Israel, Saudi Arabia, and even elements within the US government are likely to try and use this situation to push Trump to assume a more forceful position against Iran on the ground in Syria,” Barnes-Dacey added.