- PML-N’s 2017-18 economic performance so far
With national elections due, government actions are naturally geared towards projecting the ruling party in the best possible light for voters to make the ‘right’ choice at the polls. The prime minister’s recent economic reforms package raised the individual tax exemption limit from Rs400,000 to Rs1.2 million, providing relief to a huge chunk of taxpayers, and with the Amnesty Scheme component, wooing a considerable number of influential people. On Monday, the government’s National Accounts Committee released tentative figures of growth or otherwise in various sectors of the economy for the ongoing fiscal year, ‘on the basis of available data’ but these projections will only receive the stamp of authenticity on April 26 when the Economic Survey of Pakistan for 2017-18 is made public.
The GDP growth rate, per capita income and agricultural production offer the few favourable aspects in the NAC report, but for the most part, there is little to write home about, or should it be to the IMF, our financial home away from home, at whose doorstep we are frequent sheepish visitors. The GDP, though falling short of the six percent target at 5.79, is still the highest for more than a decade, per capita income for 2017-18 (Rs.180,204) shows marginal increase over 2016-17 (Rs162,230), the economy’s substantial services sector grew 6.43 against 6.4 percent target, while agricultural growth (3.81 percent) pleasantly exceeded its laid down budgetary figure of 3.5 percent, with major crops rice, sugarcane and cotton showing growth of 8.7, 7.4 and 11.8 percent respectively. However, the downside is also glaring in industrial sector (5.8 percent against target of 7.3 percent), construction (9.13/12.1 percent), finance and insurance (6.13/9.5 percent), current account deficit ($15.6 instead of $9 billion target), electricity (1.8/12.5 percent) and large scale manufacturing(6.13 /6.4 percent). Rapidly increasing unemployment can be countered only by a GDP growth rate of at least seven percent, and the IMF has provided the recipe for success on numerous occasions, stressing higher exports, structural reforms, debt management, better revenue collection, crackdown on corruption and tax evasion, among others. Only by scrupulously following these, and of course, with the CPEC’s potential, can the country’s economic fortunes be restored.
