The year of the unknown

The question of Punjab

With speculations rife for political upsets throughout the year, stakeholders are seen bracing themselves for the outcome. Conviction for the Sharif family, elections on time, if at all, and continuation of democracy are the factors under discussion.

First and foremost, the convictions. As we enter into April it seems like the writing on the wall. Not because of pre-planned decisions though, but because the family might actually be unable to account for the excessive amounts of wealth accumulated over the past few decades. Quite evidently, the Sharif family has prepared itself for the verdict which is to be issued soon. Why else would they start defending themselves in the media already? Certain comments are tilted towards; yes, we will be convicted, just get over with it already.

Build a narrative before the verdict is actually out and we might be able to do some damage control. At least this is how the family perceives it. Rightly so, in the case of some uneducated supporters, however the rest of us know when the apple has fallen far from the tree. With the conviction comes the sigh for the younger Sharif. His only chance of leading the race, for the very first time in his life. It looks like as if the convictions might even be triumphant for the Shehbaz quarters. The supreme leader cemented away from the seat of power for the times to come and the path for the younger one clearer than it ever could be. Which leads us to another trivial question, who will lead the ship in Punjab?

Punjab, effectively, remains the power source due to which PML-N sails through the corridors of power. Handing it over to someone other than a family member would be politically unsound. Hamza? Unacceptable to some. Maryam? Won’t be there after the conviction. Who else can be trusted with the power base of the party? Ch Nisar has already become critical of the family. He has professed that if the party became a family oriented one, he’d separate his path from them. My humble question to Mr Nisar is, what has the party been ever since its inception? Had it already not been family oriented? In the words of Aitzaz Ahsan; “Mein poochta hun kab khula tujh pe yeh raaz, inkaar se pehle ke baad?”

Anything and everything can be expected in the days to follow. The crucial time being witnessed is historic in itself. The judiciary is the most powerful it has ever been since the creation of Pakistan, with occasional overstepping in the form of judicial activism present too

Having staunchly supported the party for the longest time, Ch Nisar is one of the oldest stalwarts of the Sharif family. Defending them on any given occasion he has not even shied away from leading the defense side for the London flats. And yet all of a sudden we have a Nisar who is not ready to tolerate the family staying in command. Is it because invitations to party meetings are not being extended to him anymore? Or is it some personal vendetta that has surfaced recently, only Nisar alone can clarify. Nevertheless, if he were to jump ship at this crucial moment, it will be damaging to the Sharif family. Despite the family’s own abandoning of a lot of senior leaders such as Zulfiqar Khosa and Javed Hashmi, this one will bite them where it hurts.

The question remains, Punjab? It seems at the moment there is no clarity regarding the leadership in the province. Obviously, it of significant importance for the party to choose its leader, however a lasting decision can only be made after the accountability court renders its verdict.

Moving on to the other question floating in the minds of the public. Will there be elections on time? A tricky question with no absolute answer. Where at one side it seems all the institutions are keen to remain within constitutional limits and hold the elections as mandated by the law, on the other the talk of a conspiracy unravelling is heard aloud. Delimitation has actually affected a lot many candidates, the strongest ones the most. With objections being filed before the ECP, the pot seems to be stirring rather quickly. The conspiracy theorists predict judicial intervention by bringing forward a challenge to the delimitation and the new constituencies. Although the CJP has put to rest all such rumors however only time shall tell what the actual reality is. The CJP may be right, there might not be a planned judicial martial law incoming. However, it is possible that a legitimate challenge to the delimitation exercise is brought before the courts for adjudication. The top adjudicators might be compelled to intervene and protect valuable rights of all the stakeholders.

Someone truly stated 2018 to be the year of the unknown. Anything and everything can be expected in the days to follow. The crucial time being witnessed is historic in itself. The judiciary is the most powerful it has ever been since the creation of Pakistan, with occasional overstepping in the form of judicial activism present too. The politicians remain in the fear of the unknown.

On the bright side, there might not be any conspiracy being hatched and the system may be able to continue unhindered. General Bajwa indeed may have an agenda, every chief has one, and however his seems to be inclined towards strengthening the nation and coating it with democracy. The appearance before a senate committee recently was a step in the right direction. A step unexpected from a uniformed lad.

It would be soothing to see the Bajwa doctrine being in the form of continuation of democracy and nothing else. Intervention, be it direct or indirect, cannot be concealed and the same will have a lot of detractors. Accountability aside, no intervention from any quarter should be effected. Otherwise the purpose of a constitutional democracy will be defeated if unconstitutional steps were to govern how the country will be ruled.