- Pakistan’s move
Considering the way pieces are moving on the AfPak chessboard, and beyond, it seems a combination that will force an endgame agreeable to all principal parties might finally be on the cards. Jim Mattis’s surprise visit to Afghanistan – where he brought up ‘those Taliban willing to talk’ a number of times – Pakistani NSA Janjua’s flurry of meetings in Kabul, PM Abbasi’s half-hour with US Vice President Mike Pence, and Afghan President Ghani’s offer of ‘state-to-state talks’, all focused on steering the Afghan war to an end, more specifically Pakistan’s role in getting the Taliban to talk peace.
By now everybody knows what a ‘final solution’ will roughly look like. Kabul, once unwilling to entertain talks – same goes for US – has been unable to really extend its writ beyond the capital and, realistically, now sees no end other than negotiations. The Taliban, controlling more than a quarter of the country and getting better, also understand that however much fortune shines upon them they will never retake Kabul. And, unless they talk it out, they will remain at war and casualties will only mount. But they have problems with the US presence, and role in the process, as well as the Afghan constitution.
This is where Pakistan becomes important. America and Afghanistan believe Pakistan has the leverage to arm-twist the Taliban into final talks despite their reservations. However, that turns the debate to Pakistan’s own problems, and the TTP sanctuary on the Afghan side. This is where the road to the solution apparently hits a wall. The Americans would help, but they want action against the Haqqanis first, and so on and so forth. Perhaps Pakistan could take the initiative and break the impasse with concrete action against any militants still holed up inside its borders. How hard can it be to produce solid evidence when everybody is on the same page? The Afghan solution resembles a puzzle where the solution is largely known, only the sequence of events is missing. By taking the first step, Pakistan could force a scenario where we clean up our backyard, they take out TTP, Afghan Taliban and Kabul negotiate, and the American leaves the region to its people. Pakistan’s move will become clear when PM Abbasi and President Ghani meet.