- Both to be losers if deterioration is not arrested
Despite the offstage meetings between the National Security Advisers of Pakistan and India, a mitigation of hostilities between the two countries is nowhere in sight. The escalation by the Indian side from ‘talks over bullets’ to ‘talks and bullets’ has now reached the stage of ‘disproportionate bombardment’ with high caliber weapons and no desire for talks on the part of the Modi government. Recently Indian Army Chief Bipin Rawat threatened that Indian army was ready to call Pakistan’s ‘nuclear bluff’ and violate the border to carry out any operation inside Pakistan. Last week three UN observers narrowly escaped the Indian army’s attack along the LoC in AJK while two civilians were seriously injured in the incident. India is not willing for meaningful talks on Kashmir in return for calm borders and cracking down on anti-India terror groups in Pakistan. Meanwhile there being no end to the harassment of the Pakistan embassy staff in New Delhi, Islamabad has recalled its High Commissioner for talks. The relations between the two countries are continuing to deteriorate.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) would hold its summit in June in Qindao. In case the Indian PM attends the summit he is likely to meet Pakistan’s caretaker PM on the sidelines of the summit. The issue of Pakistan-India relations too is likely to be taken up. Instead of entertaining unrealistic expectations from its allies Pakistan should by now be wiser regarding how China sees some of the militant networks which continue to move freely in the country or are being mainstreamed. The security establishment needs to review its policy about these networks so that it is not short of options in case the issue of Pak-India relations is taken up at the summit.
General elections in India are scheduled for 2019. It would be shortsighted on Modi’s part to continue to ratchet up the anti-Pakistan rhetoric to placate his Hindu nationalist lobby. Riding the tiger might be an exhilarating experience but the consequences are bound to be unpleasant. Statesmanship requires working out a peaceful solution to outstanding problems with neighbouring countries.