ISLAMABAD: Free and Fair Election Network (ECP) identified discrepancies in the population size of electoral constituencies in fresh delimitation proposals laid out by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).
While ECP had upheld the legal delimitation principles of geographical compactness and respect for the existing boundaries of administrative units, the principle of equality of vote was compromised in as many as 81 National Assembly (NA) constituencies where the variation in the population size exceeded the ordinarily permissible legal limit of 10 per cent.
Election Rules, 2017 drafted and approved by ECP appeared to have been strictly adhered to but in that process, the legal principle of equality of vote was compromised. Rules pertaining to delimitation could not sufficiently operationalise the legal principle of equality of vote among the constituencies. Law provides for equality among constituencies but rules attempted to follow the principle among the provinces and districts.
In a detailed analysis of the preliminary report and the list of constituencies released by ECP, FAFEN examined the variations found in the population and size of voters of the NA constituencies regarding the national, provincial and district averages of the population and voters per constituency.
Legally, as far as possible, variation in the population of constituencies of an assembly should not ordinarily exceed ten per cent. However, the FAFEN analysis revealed that variation exceeded the limit of ten percent in as many as 81 out of 260 NA constituencies which were being delimited in light of the Elections Act, 2017. The law allowed ECP to deviate from the permissible limit in only exceptional cases; however, the reasons for any such deviation must be recorded in the delimitation order. ECP had used this discretionary power in case of around one-third of the constituencies being delimited which went against the spirit of the equality of vote as stipulated in the Elections Act, 2017.
Of 81 constituencies, 59 constituencies had been suggested with the variation rate between 11 per cent and 20 per cent in 59 constituencies, 11 constituencies had variation between 21 per cent and 30 per cent, six constituencies had a higher degree of variation between 31 per cent and 40 per cent and in cases of five constituencies, this variation was exorbitantly high, falling between 41 per cent and 50 per cent.
Each of the three constituencies of Islamabad had the population 14 per cent less than the national average of the population per NA constituency. Similarly, the population in Balochistan NA constituencies was also lower the national average while the population of the constituencies in the remaining three provinces was above the national average.
The variation in population sizes became even more obvious within the provinces. For instance, NA-37 Tank in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) represented 391,885 citizens, while a population of around 1.2 million in NA-35 Bannu was reportedly represented by one NA constituency. The power of vote for the people of Bannu would be less than a half of what the people living in the Tank constituency would enjoy. Similarly, in Punjab, NA-37 Jhelum-II had been demarcated as a seat with a population of 546,113 citizens, while NA-87 Hafizabad-I had a population of almost 1.2 million, almost double of the Jhelum constituency. In Sindh, NA-199 Shikarpur-II had been created with a population of 588,185 citizens, while NA-197 Kashmore represented a population of 1,089,169 individuals. In Balochistan, NA-262 Kachhi-cum-Jhal Magsi had been allocated a population of just 386,255 citizens against NA-268 Mastung-cum-Chaghai-cum-Kalat-cum-Shaheed Sikandarabad-cum-Nushki that would represent almost thrice of this population i.e. 1,083,497 citizens. Nationally, the Balochistan constituency NA-262 Kachhi-cum-Jhal Magsi was the smallest with regards to the population size while the KP constituency NA-65 was the largest.
The disparities become more visible when ECP’s statistics of voters were applied on the suggested constituencies. If ECP’s statistics which were updated in October 2017 were projected on fresh delimitation proposals, the constituency sizes would vary between 130,000 to more than 600,000 voters.
FAFEN analysis of potential voting population of proposed constituencies suggested that two NA constituencies – one each in Balochistan and KP – would have less than 150,000 registered voters.
On an average, each NA constituency would potentially have more than 364,000 voters; however, the inter-constituency distribution of voters was skewed. For instance, one MNA each would represent 130,000 voters for NA-262 and 617,000 voters of NA-19 Haripur. As many as 73 NA constituencies would have fewer voters than the national average of voting population per NA constituency and 85 constituencies would have voters above this average. FAFEN recommended that ECP take the deviation from the delimitation principle of capping the variation to 10 per cent seriously and ensure that the citizen’s right to equal representation was respected everywhere in the country.
As many as 19 constituencies – 10 in Balochistan and three each in KP, Sindh and ICT – would have a voting population between 150,000 and 249,999 voters. As proposed, more than one third of all NA constituencies, 78 to be precise, would have 250,000 to 349,999 voters. Majority of Sindh constituencies (42 of 61) would have this voting population range. As many as 20 constituencies in Punjab and 13 in KP would also join their Sindh counterparts to have voters in this range. More than half of the overall NA constituencies (138) would have a voting population between 350,000 and 450,000 voters. Overwhelming majority of Punjab constituencies (107 of 141) would fall under this median bracket. As many as 15 NA constituencies would have voters between 450,000 and 550,000 and four constituencies would have more than 550,000 voters.
