The future of US-Pakistan relations

Better diplomacy required from our side

Pakistan’s foreign secretary, Tehmina Janjua, who is in Washingtonian DC for bilateral talks in a recent statement said that “Washington should know Pakistan has no longer influence to bring Taliban to talks.” Reportedly, she further said that “we have made clear that we will do whatever we think is in our national interests.”

A few days ago, the US Defence Intelligence Agency said Pakistan’s efforts in the war against terrorism had made some considerable gains against the country’s fight against terrorism. In this regard, a recent report submitted to the US Senate’s Armed Services Committee concerning Pakistan’s counterterrorism operations notes that “Islamabad is likely to proceed with its counterinsurgency operations and border management efforts along its western border while sustaining counterterrorism and paramilitary operations throughout the country. These efforts have had some success in reducing violence.” The report further noted: “Pakistan will look to the United States and the Afghan government for support against anti-Pakistan fighters in Afghanistan.

After the recent rupture in bilateral relations, there appears to be a realization both in Kabul and Washington that the blame game will not help in resolving issues, which will only increase if there remains a confrontation and mistrust between the two countries. While efforts are being made on both sides to revive some sort of structural dialogue to undermine growing mutual mistrust, for any dialogue to achieve something strategically, Washington and Islamabad need to keep their expectations in zones which are practically achievable.

Washington’s recent lobbying to place Pakistan’s name on the list of countries that are not doing enough to counter terror financing at the FATF forum in Paris shows that our foreign policy not only lacks an aggressive stance but has also failed to create an international narrative which recognizes Pakistan’s recent counter-terrorism gains

One of the fundamental reasons that Pakistan has been unable to fulfill Washington’s demands is due to the latter’s impractical and unreasonable expectations from Islamabad. For instance, the US has never worked on a plan which directly or indirectly takes into account Pakistan’s concerns when it comes to the complex regional security situation. Washington has never paid heed to Pakistan’s concerns when the country remains a direct stakeholder in the South Asian regional security situation, particularly Afghanistan. Washington’s strategic community focuses more on blaming Pakistan for its questionable security policy than assessing the latter’s strategic sensitivities which with all its hyperbolic caveats have realistic concerns. As things stand, it’s a good policy on Pakistan’s part to let the American’s know that Islamabad doesn’t have any significant leverage to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table.

With the Afghan Taliban controlling nearly half of Afghanistan, Washington cannot expect the solution to the conflict by blaming the neighboring states for its own counterterrorism failures in the country. Afghanistan remains a highly divided country internally with its ruling elite working for its own political and tribal interests. Afghanistan’s military has emerged as a defeated force with desertions and casualties soaring. Apparently, Washington has no workable plan to defeat the Taliban other than creating a narrative which blames Pakistan for the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.

Pakistan for its part has never had an aggressive policy to counteract the US’s propaganda machinery which has successfully continued to project Islamabad’s image as a state which sponsors transnational terrorism. Washington’s recent lobbying to place Pakistan’s name on the list of countries that are not doing enough to counter terror financing at the FATF forum in Paris shows that our foreign policy not only lacks an aggressive stance but has also failed to create an international narrative which recognizes Pakistan’s recent counter-terrorism gains.

Pakistan needs to demonstrate to the international community that effective border management, refugee repatriation and Afghanistan’s internal dynamic remain key issues in Afghanistan’s security situation

In this regard, two factors stand out which needs a strategic push from the Pakistani side. One, it’s unclear whether the current leadership of Pakistan’s military is interested in seeing the Afghan Taliban creating havoc in Afghanistan. However, what has become clear is that, the current leadership of Pakistan genuinely desires a peaceful Afghanistan which directly supports Pakistan’s ongoing mega economic projects. For this to become achievable, Pakistan wishes to see the Afghan Taliban becoming part of any negotiation process. And given Afghan Taliban’s clout, it’s immature to expect peace in Afghanistan without the involvement of the former in any reconciliation process. Second, while Pakistan has made significant efforts to eradicate militant group’s sanctuaries from the tribal areas, what the country still lacks is an effective policy design which projects these efforts as a regional success story. For instance, Pakistan needs to demonstrate to the international community that effective border management, refugee repatriation and Afghanistan’s internal dynamic remain key issues in Afghanistan’s security situation.

So far, unfortunately, we have not seen Pakistan’s foreign policy representatives presenting Islamabad’s views in Washington’s policy circles. Making statements and hurling threats on local TV channels is not an effective approach to leave a message to an audience which feeds on Washington’s policy institutes analytical vigor. The recent political appointment of an ambassador to the US shows that there does not appear to be a seriousness on the part of the government to work on the area of assertive diplomacy which only a credible and accomplished career diplomat can deliver.