And its impact on PML-N
That Nawaz Sharif would no longer be able to preside over party meetings will have a significant effect on the PML-N’s working. Not that Nawaz will stop interfering in the party’s affairs but deprived of power and unable to distribute favours, it will become increasingly difficult for him to impose his views on the party. It is all the more significant that the judgment to debar him from party leadership comes at a time when the PML-N is divided between those who want a headlong clash with the establishment and judiciary and the ones who advocate a conciliatory approach and are opposed to confrontation.
The party leaders will henceforth increasingly look up to Shahbaz who is the presumptive PM of the PML-N for favours and directions. Unlike parties in developed democracies where the office of the Prime Minister and that of the party president are held by different persons, the tradition in the PML-N is to vest both the offices in a single leader with the result that the Prime Minister is also the party President. Meanwhile, once raised to the status of the PM, Shahabaz is likely to develop the courage to say no to Nawaz Sharif.
The first change that one expects is the selection of a team of advisers by Shahbaz Sharif. His antipathy to the young bigmouths gathered around Nawaz Sharif is widely known. Enjoying the extra-constitutional status of the “guide of the party” Nawaz can only advise the Prime Minster but not dictate to him. Once Shahbaz Sharif who is already the President of the PML-N, is also elected Prime Minister of the country he will accept the advice only if it is in conformity with his plans.
Much will depend on the judgment regarding the duration of the former Prime Minister’s disqualification. If it is only five years Nawaz Sharif’s advice will carry more weight and he may even retrieve his former position soon after the bar is lifted on his holding public office. But in case he gets a longer sentence the party will take him lightly as his return to party leadership would be uncertain.
