What is the havoc on Pakistani roads all about?

• Tragedy of the commons

There was a time in Iran when everyone rode in cars despite not all of them owning one. Although this by and of itself does not hold true for Pakistan, yet the situation was not as bad as it is today on the roads of all metropolitan cities of the Republic. Before describing the worst, let’s ponder over what was better.

All the archives available in libraries and on internet show what Lahore and Karachi looked like before ‘70s, or ‘60s for that matter – an easily countable number of cars along with a finite figure of bicycles on two-way double roads. Today, a quarter of a million vehicles are estimated to move through the 18-kilometre Shahrah-e-Faisal daily. The usual sight of jammed traffic on this and other similar roads in different cities not only signifies their importance in terms of areas they connect and features they bear but also hint at the ever-increasing number of vehicles which is certainly not unchecked but definitely uncontrolled and unplanned.

In 1947, there were neither any automobile assembly plants nor any industry capability available in Pakistan for the manufacturing of cars, light commercial vehicles, motorcycles, trucks and buses. Investment in the automobile industry in Pakistan started in the mid-‘50s when Kandawallah Industries (later known as Naya Daur Motors) established its units for assembling buses and trucks. This highlights the most common mode of commuting used by majority of the people – public transport. According to statistics provided by National Transport Research Centre, Pakistan inherited 3,618 motorcycles, 12,749 cars, 4,576 buses and 928 cabs, contributing to a total of 30,577 registered vehicles in 1947. By 1997, all the figures had drastically hiked up to 1,712,759 motorcycles, 635,534 cars, 75,519 buses, 66,398 cabs and 62,443 rickshaws, amounting to approximately 3.5 million registered vehicles. Yes, the collective length of high and low type roads has been increased from 50,367 kilometres in 1947 to 228,206 kilometres by 1997, yet the absolute mayhem witnessed on Pakistani roads narrates a different tale.

Automotive industry has been an actively growing sector in Pakistan for a long time with current stable production of 100-170 thousands. Although this figure does not enumerate it among the prominent top automotive industries in the world with Pakistan being the sixth most populous country, yet the lack of transfer of technology does not seem to bungle the number of vehicles that are ultimately bought by users and brought on roads, thanks to imported cars.

There is no denying the fact that many households now own two or three cars at a time, giving an increase of 268 and 439 percent in the total number of registered motor vehicles and motor cycles, respectively, in the country in the past fifteen years

There is no denying the fact that many households now own two or three cars at a time, giving an increase of 268 and 439 percent in the total number of registered motor vehicles and motor cycles, respectively, in the country in the past fifteen years. The culture of carpooling seems to tragically fade away as members of the same family prefer to commute separately, let alone promoting ride-sharing among communities, owing to distant workplaces in different corners of city. By having more people using one vehicle, car-sharing not only reduces fuel costs and stress of driving but is also environmentally friendly as it puts a sharp cut on carbon emissions, pollution, traffic congestion on the roads and the spiking increase in parking spaces. It is often encouraged by authorities in periods of high fuel prices, such as during 1973 oil crisis, or high pollution, as in the case of smog in Delhi where odd-even formula was adopted as a road-space rationing strategy. There are, however, certain reasons as to why the culture of doing so is fading away, theft and terrorism being the two major security concerns.

Another facet of the problem exists in the very solution of it – the use of public transport. An increase of only 167 percent was observed in public transport vehicles from 2000 to 2015, as revealed in Gallup Pakistan’s ‘Short Roundup on Transport Infrastructure in Pakistan’ published in 2016. Yes, billions of rupees have been spent on such projects as Metrobus and Orange Train but the congestion on roads has only further heightened. Why? Because the area for the track of Metrobus in Lahore was taken from the limited width of already existing roads with little or no sideways expansion thus restricting the normal traffic to roads of much decreased widths. Furthermore, launching other transport services, like Metro Feeder Bus Service in Lahore, has elevated the already existing competition of space on roads. Such services are supposed to be introduced in parallel to proportional reduction in the number of private vehicles especially in peak hours. What use could these be of otherwise if people continue to prefer their private cars to public transport?

Although there are 10 cars for 1,000 persons in the country which is one of the lowest in the emerging economies and should ideally speak of the high potential of growth in the auto sector and car production, but this is already way too much in Pakistan’s context. The automobile industry saw factual boom in 2006-2007 when sales touched record peak of 180,834 because of the rising trend of car financing up to 70-80 per cent by banks owing to low interest rates and increase in rural buying. But where would all these vehicles go, that is the question.

Three factors that seem to be the key determinants of sales of private vehicles in Pakistan are all somehow related to population. With the population growth of 2.7 per cent per annum and the changing lifestyles of people, automobile sector continues to flourish. The second factor is the demographic shift whereby migration of population from rural to urban areas affects the automobile sales indirectly. In cities, the need for travelling longer distances between places of residence and work as a result of urbanisation has created the need for using private vehicles.

Though the third determinant has been already hinted at, it is important to be noted because it is this very factor wherein our solution lies. The need for cars will be higher in countries where transportation system is inefficient, and the state of our public transportation is extremely poor, to say the least. Therefore, to avoid their use, people prefer having their own cars as soon as their incomes increase. Granted that the greater effect is on the used car market (which theoretically keeps the total number vehicles on road unchanged), new cars may still be out in accordance with affordability range of people. Such people who were either motorcyclists or pedestrians and have switched to motor cars due to lack of public transportation facilities are known as “first time buyers”, and they offer a great potential for the sales of cars provided they are affordable.

Thus planning and constructing flyovers, underpasses, signal-free corridors and metro bus and train services would remain of little help if homework on ways of reducing private vehicles on roads by encouraging the middle- and upper-class to travel on public transport remains to be unfinished. The exercise involves extensive reiteration on environmental issues, the recent phenomenon of smog in Lahore and extreme weather conditions to quote two, and developing a sense of responsibility among the masses, for nothing can be really achieved if a shared asset becomes the tragedy of the commons.