- Number of PML-N senators, cabinet members, MNAs seek Senate seats due to PML-N’s uncertain future after 2018 general elections
- Party insiders claim Maryam Nawaz’s loyalists will get major share in nomination of Senate candidates; however, PML-N still has to announce candidates
- PPP set to announce its candidates as it eyes nine Senate seats
- PTI makes its horses public
ISLAMABAD: With the Senate elections around the corner, political parties of the country have almost shortlisted their candidates for the upcoming contest; however, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz fell short of expectations as it even failed to form its parliamentary board to shortlist the candidates even after the passage of four months.
As the election for the 48 Senate slots is to be held on March 3, the election for four seats of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is yet to be announced due to certain legal issues, particularly one being the Elections Act 2017 not extended to the region.
It is, however, expected that the government will soon request for promulgation of a Presidential Ordinance to facilitate the election on the four FATA seats.
The federal government had earlier gotten a presidential ordinance issued to pave way for the elections on Islamabad’s two seats in the Senate. This arrangement might facilitate holding of Senate elections on all 52 seats as per the ECP’s original schedule.
NO PARLIAMENTARY BOARD FOR PML-N SO FAR:
The PML-N is planning to grab a lion’s share of the Senate seats. Party strategists believe the ruling league may win at least 13-15 seats. Having already 26 lawmakers in the house— nine retiring on March 11— the ruling party may take its total tally to 30 or 32 in the final run.
The PML-N may be able to clean sweep in Punjab if the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and PML-Q could not reach a settlement between Chaudhry Sarwar and Kamil Ali Agha. It may be mentioned here that the PTI and PML-Q have entered an alliance and formed a joint committee for the Senate elections.
Chaudhry Sarwar however is eyeing victory in the Senate polls. He is in talks with the PML-Q and feels comfortable with the results despite the fact that the PML has fielded Kamil Ali Agha.
If things don’t go in PML-Q and PTI’s favour, the ruling PML-N may win all 12 seats from Punjab, including reserved seats for women, technocrats and minorities, due to its majority in the provincial assembly.
The PML-N has 310 MPAs in the 371-member Punjab Assembly, followed by 30 PTI MPAs.
Similarly, the PML-N is all set to win both the seats from Islamabad — one general and one technocrat seat.
In Sindh, the PML-N may not be able to win even a single seat but it can win one seat from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
In Balochistan, the ruling party is in a difficult situation where its majority lawmakers had rebelled against party’s central leadership and ousted the PML-N’s chief minister Sanaullah Zehri. Hence, the party may win two or three Senate seats in the province.
Upon an investigation by Pakistan Today regarding the PML-N’s strategy to enter the elections, it was revealed that the ruling PML-N has failed to form its parliamentary board for the polls.
Though the ruling party had decided to establish a parliamentary board in the buildup to the 2018 general elections back in November 2017, the party could not do it even after four months.
Perhaps, this could be one of the reasons that the ruling party has failed to finalise its candidates for the Senate elections as compared to its rival Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) that has made its nominations public.
Source privy to the development told Pakistan Today that the decision to shortlist candidates would be a tough ask as party’s sitting senators, cabinet members and even members of the National Assembly aspire to become senators and have even applied for the role.
Despite all that, it has been said that PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif might have his own finalised list which he hasn’t shared with anyone yet.
In the aftermath of reported fissures within the party, though apparently shortlived, it is expected that pro-Maryam Nawaz group would get the major share in Senate seats. Earlier, supporters of Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Shehbaz had come at loggerheads over the issue of who will run the party after Nawaz. Hamza’s absence was also conspicuous in the Lahore by-election’s campaign led by Maryam. A report denied by the PML-N leadership.
“Keeping in view the increasing influence of Maryam Nawaz Sharif, it is expected that the loyalists of Maryam would get a lion’s share of the Senate candidates list, the source said, adding the Maryam’s supporters include Tahira Aurangzeb, mother of Information Minister Maryam Aurangzeb; Shah Nawaz Ranjha, father of MNA Mohsin Shah Nawaz Ranjha; Health Minister Saira Afzal Tarar; Minister for Information Technology Anusha Rehman Khan and others,” the source said.
Asked why the sitting ministers and MNAs were seeking tickets for the Senate, the source disclosed that as there was an uncertainty regarding the result of next general elections and party’s subsequent standing, the PML-N leaders want to choose a safer path by having a six-year term in the Senate.
Asked to elaborate further, Saira Afzal Tarrar would not be able to win election after Hafizabad lost one seat due to new delimitations, and strong chances of the PTI’s Bhattis winning in Hafizabad. Hence, Tarar would pitch her father to contest the NA elections and she is eyeing the Senate seat for herself.
Likewise, the source said that the party’s veteran Tehmina Daultana was also eyeing the Senate due to weak chances of winning from Vehari. The source said party’s veterans like Sartaj Aziz, Irfan Siddiqui, Asif Kirmani, Nuzhat Sadiq are also vying for the ticket.
It may be mentioned here that according to media reports Sartaj Aziz and Mushahid Hussain Sayed will be contesting the elections on the two Islamabad seats.
The source further said that Federal Power Minister Sardar Awais Leghari had also applied for a ticket for his older brother Sardar Jamal Leghari, who was feeling ‘uncomfortable’ against his rival Khosa and PTI’s Zartaj Gul.
Tickets are likely to be awarded to Kamran Michael on non-Muslim seat and Ishaq Dar for re-election on the technocrat seat from Punjab.
PPP TO FINALISE CANDIDATES’ LIST SOON:
The PPP will be the biggest loser in terms of representation in the Senate as 18 out of its 26 senators are set to retire in March. The party is expected to win nine seats in the coming elections and its total membership in the upper house is likely to drop to 17.
In Sindh, the PPP is expected to win eight seats out of total 12 due to the support of 94 MPAs in the 168-member Sindh Assembly.
The PPP however has to finalise its list of candidates for the Sindh Assembly.
Prominent among those in the run for the Senate elections included Dr Sikandar Mendhro, Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar, Mian Raza Rabbani, Barrister Murtaza Wahab, Maula Bux Chandio, Khalid Khan Advocate, Naveed Anthony, Noman Abdullah (son of Abdullah Murad), Nida Khuhro (daughter of Nisar Khuhro) and Quratulain Marri (sister of Shazia Marri).
For the non-Muslim seat, Krishna Kumari has already been selected though.
SINDH’S FOUR SEATS:
The contest for the remaining four seats will be interesting in the aftermath of the division within the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has 50 MPAs. It is believed that if the MQM remains united under Dr Farooq Sattar, then the party can easily obtain the remaining four seats. Otherwise, the PML-F, which is facing extinction from the Senate, may regain a seat.
PTI NAMES CANDIDATES FROM KP:
PTI is perhaps the only party which has tried to remain focused on one provincial assembly where it has the majority as it has announced six candidates to help win four general, and one women’s and technocrat seat each.
Besides KP, the PTI also hopes to secure one Senate seat from Punjab but this is only possible if it manages to woo dissident MPAs of other parties in the Punjab Assembly.
According to the formula, 123-seat KP assembly will be required a total of 17 MPAs vote to elect one senator.
The parties’ strength chart shows that the PTI has 61 MPAs, Qaumi Watan Party (10), PPP (6), PML-N (16), Jammat-e-Islami (7), Awami National Party (5), and two independent candidates.
PTI’s Fawad Chaudhry says that the party had decided to award party tickets to Ayub Afridi, Faisal Javed Khan, Fida Hussain, Mehertaj Roghaani (Women), Khayal Zaman and Azam Khan Swati (Technocrat).
Besides the PTI and the JI, there are chances that the PPP and the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) may also win one seat each from KP. However, the chances of the Awami National Party and the Qaumi Watan Party getting any seat from KP are minimal.
The JUI-F is also expected to lose its position in the upper house of parliament. Three of its five senators are retiring in March and given the party position in the provincial assemblies, it is expected to get only three seats from Balochistan.
