A test of nerves for the PML-N

• PML-Q government in Balochistan, specter of Hudaibiya case and street protests

The parliamentary coup in Balochistan brought PM Abbasi to Jati Umra to confer with party leaders over the emerging challenges. The PML-N has none but its own members to blame who rebelled against their CM replacing him with one from the PML-Q, thus making PML-Q the ruling party of a province. The move is in consonance with the rules of formal democracy practiced in Pakistan. Cynics are likely to remark that those who gifted the legislators to Nawaz Sharif in 2013 decided this time to hand them over to PML-Q.
The PML-N faces several challenges now. NAB has filed a review petition against SC’s rejection of the reopening of Hudaibiya case. It remains to be seen whether the apex court turns down its earlier verdict. The next challenge is from the street protests announced by PAT chief Tahirul Qadri who has vowed to fight till both the federal and Punjab administrations are sent home. It is again premature to predict whether the mercurial cleric who has in the past always started with a bang and ended with a whimper would stick to his resolve. While the PTI is seemingly resolved to go the whole hog to overthrow the PML-N government, the PPP is unwilling to accompany Qadri beyond a single day protest. As the PPP secretary general put it, his party did not want to make the PML-N a “political martyr” at a time when the tenure of its government is about to end.
The PML-N has proved that it is still capable of outbidding the PTI in the employment of reactionary slogans to win over even the retrogressive fringe as it did in Chakwal. Courtesy CPEC, the government has redeemed in the main the pledge to end load shedding. Thanks the Operations Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad there is reduction in terrorist attacks despite the government’s failure to fully implement the NAP. In case the government can keep the inflation under control during the months preceding the elections and there is no major desertion in the parliamentary party, it might be difficult for a divided opposition to defeat the PML-N.