For Israelis and Palestinians, the ramifications of U.S. President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital late last year have not yet fully emerged.
In the region, changes in Iran‘s position as a power-broker and the demise of the Islamic State will also shape how the coming year will look.
Although changes in both the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships may occur in 2018, chances of a full-blown conflict between the two-sides are slim to none, with Gaza being a possible spoiler.
Mahmoud Abbas is the 82-year-old leader of the Palestinian Authority who may or may not end his term in 2018. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under corruption investigations which may force him to step down. For now, though, their seats are secure.
The Trump declaration resulted in a spike in violence between the two sides with clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. 12 Palestinians have been killed since the U.S. announcement and tens of others wounded. One Israeli has been killed and several others injured in violent incidents.
The end of last year also saw a spike in rockets fired from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip into Israel, with fire continuing at the beginning of 2018. The tit-for-tat rocket fire and subsequent Israeli retaliation can easily spiral out of control.
“In Gaza, it can suddenly happen without planning or anticipation on both sides,” said Nimrod Goren, head of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, “Events create a cycle with its own dynamic.”
The impoverished and isolated territory, the home of nearly 2 million Palestinians, has been ruled by the militant Hamas organization since 2007. Since then, a strict blockade has been imposed by both Israel and Egypt. Israel and Hamas have fought several bloody rounds, the latest in 2014. Gaza is still recuperating from the last war. Hamas, which has been severely weakened by the blockade and changes in Egypt’s government, has turned to reconciliation efforts with the rivaling Fatah party in the hopes of gaining strength.
Yet, Hamas continues to prepare for the next conflict with Israel, making Gaza the wild card in the region.
Just on Jan. 14, the Israeli army announced it has demolished a tunnel constructed by Hamas and situated under the Kerem Shalom crossing where goods from Israel enter the Gaza Strip. According to the military, Hamas intended to use the tunnel in order to carry out attacks against Israeli targets, including gas and fuel pipelines which run close by.
A successful attack could have thrown the region into a full-blown conflict. Being the third such tunnel that Israel has demolished in recent weeks, it appears the country now possesses the means to neutralize the potentially crippling threat.
The discovery of such a cross border tunnel was the catalyst to the 2014 battle between the two sides.
“The conflict moves from one threat to another, to a new invention. Like a cat and mouse, one side invents something new,” Goren said.
Unilateralism which characterized 2017 will most likely continue throughout this year.
The Likud party in Israel, led by Netanyahu, adopted a resolution that encourages party parliament members to promote legislation annexing the West Bank territories, which Palestinians and many in the international community see as an integral part of their future state. Israel is continuing to build new homes in these areas.
The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, rang in the new year by adopting the “United Jerusalem” amendment that requires a super majority to any territorial changes made to the city in case of a political agreement.
Palestinians want East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state while the majority of Israelis object to the division of the city. Although Trump backed Israel’s position, the majority of the international community still believes Jerusalem should be divided as was demonstrated by the most recent UN General Assembly vote denouncing the American move with an overwhelming majority.
“From the view of the Palestinians, they are excluded. It’s as if their future is being decided in foreign capitals … they aren’t being consulted … Both the United States and Israel seem like they are happy to try to plan the future of Palestinians without talking to them,” said Chelsea Mueller, a research fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and East African Studies at the Tel Aviv University.
Palestinian President Abbas is also expected to continue his bid for recognition of Palestine in numerous international organizations.
Both sides are busy creating facts on the ground with no negotiations in sight.
“The Palestinian Authority (PA) will put effort this year mostly in the international community … and the Israeli government will continue to take all kinds of steps on the ground that will make the two-state solution seem less relevant,” Goren told Xinhua.
While Israelis and Palestinians battle it out, Israel’s northern borders are also bubbling with change.
Iran, Israel’s arch-rival, is heavily entrenched in both Syria and Lebanon. For the small Jewish state, it is a cause for concern. War torn Syria is fertile ground for foreign involvement.
“Israel sees a war (Syrian civil war) and the ability of Iran to become more influential there and the lack of activity of the United States to counter the presence of Iran … that seems to (cause) concern and also, the strengthening of Hezbollah,” said Goren.
In recent months, Israel has reportedly conducted several airstrikes against targets of the Hezbollah militant organization. Reports say the Israeli military struck at weapons deliveries and key players in the organization.
Similar to Gaza, Israel’s northern borders have the similar tendency to suddenly spiral into a full-blown crisis.
“Iran situated right at the border would be a game changer,” Mueller said.
In its annual strategic survey, the Institute for National Security Studies called Israel’s northern arena its “principal security challenge.” The survey was handed to Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin at the beginning of the year.
The fate of the Iranian nuclear deal is also unclear. While U.S. President Trump has threatened to back out of it, he has yet to take concrete steps in that direction.
Netanyahu has been a leading opponent of the deal. Will he take unilateral steps if he feels Iran is crossing the nuclear threshold?
“I think both sides are quite cautious with what they do because there really is a danger of it going places that the countries do not want,” Goren said.
Israeli intelligence officials have been quoted by the media as saying the deal has been proven effective for the country by keeping Iranian nuclear aspirations under international supervision.
“Netanyahu is obligated to continue to oppose the deal, mainly because he has already convinced his constituency that it’s not in Israel’s interest so he gives it lip service, but I don’t think he is energetically pursuing this possibility that the United States should break the deal,” Mueller said.
The chances of resumption of negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians are non-existent. The U.S. backed Netanyahu government has no motivation to make moves towards the negotiating table and a desperate Abbas does not plan on sitting down at one either.
While Gaza may continue to play the role of the regional time-bomb, at the moment neither Hamas nor Israel seem interested in an escalation. They both have had plenty of excuses to begin a new round but have chosen not to. On its northern border, Israel has less control of the other side, leaving it to be the true wild card of the area. With many players involved, events could play out very differently than any side intended.
Changes in leadership, however, may result in a change in course. For this, we will have to wait and see.
