At the receiving end of Trump

Need for cool introspection

Our security and foreign policy mandarins were in for a rude shock on New Year’s Day. Finally, the mercurial and acerbic US president through a signature early morning tweet had formally put Pakistan on notice.

At 4 am on Monday Trump tweeted that the US has given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, “but they have given us nothing but lies and deceit”. Giving a ‘no more’ warning to Islamabad rather than the previous ‘do more’, with a single tweet the US president incrementally raised the ante.

Much to the chagrin of our policymakers, they belatedly realized that the proverbial has finally hit the fan. Last August Trump enunciating his South Asia policy, had warned Pakistan to shut down terrorist safe havens on its soil, failing which he cautioned, Islamabad should be ready to face the consequences. Since then there has been a bevy of stern warnings emanating from senior members of the administration.

Only a few days ago the US vice president Mike Pence during a surprise visit to Afghanistan in a terse admonition – perhaps the harshest since 9/11- said that the days of providing safe havens to terrorists by Pakistan were over. According to him, “Trump has now put Pakistan on notice.”

The US administration’s latest move to completely shut down security assistance for Islamabad should not have come as a big surprise for our policymakers. This includes money owed to Pakistan for services rendered under the CSF (coalition support fund). According to fresh estimates by this move, Islamabad will be deprived of 2 billion dollars of military assistance.

Thankfully Pakistan’s reaction to America’s Gung-ho diplomacy has been somewhat muted. Unlike in the past we have not rushed to shut down the NATO supply route to Afghanistan through Pakistan.

Of course, our military and civilian spokesmen are sticking to their usual oft-repeated mantra, that we have done nothing wrong, insisting that we are a victim of terrorism and not its perpetrator. We contend that rather than providing safe havens to the militants we are rooting them out without making any distinctions.

We lament that as a consequence of a US-India nexus we are being rubbed on the wrong side, and that the US is blaming Pakistan for its consistent failures in Afghanistan. It is obvious that in the graveyard of empires – where the British while playing the Great Game were severely mauled and more recently the Soviet forces had to withdraw in ignominy – the US is fighting the longest war in its history.

It is but natural that the Trump administration is conveniently blaming Pakistan for its consistent failures on the ground in Afghanistan. Unless the Taliban are militarily in retreat, talks for transition to any kind of consensual broad-based government will be meaningless.

Thankfully Pakistan’s reaction to America’s Gung-ho diplomacy has been somewhat muted. Unlike in the past we have not rushed to shut down the NATO supply route to Afghanistan through Pakistan.

Previously Islamabad was tasked to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. All such moves failed partly owing to the ground realities in Afghanistan and partly because Washington’s perception that the ISI (Inter Services Intelligence Agency) was playing a double game – hunting with the hounds and running with the hares.

According to a US watchdog SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), the Afghan Taliban as of August last year – roughly when Trump enunciating his new South Asia policy launched his salvo against Pakistan – controlled 13 percent of the 407 districts of Afghanistan. Roughly 33 percent of Afghan territory was under Taliban control or influence compared with 11 percent in February.

Obviously as the security situation which is much beyond the capacity of the Afghan forces has deteriorated so has Pakistan’s credibility with Washington.

While most of the political parties have with one voice lamented the US moves against Pakistan, the PML-N chief, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chose to go out on a limb. Like it has become his norm since his ouster, he implicitly blamed the khaki policy makers for the current impasse.

In his presser after his return from a still mysterious trip from Saudi Arabia, he wondered loudly why the world did not take Pakistan seriously. He underscored, “the need to examine our character and actions with sincerity.” According to him even his patriotism has been, questioned for calling a spade a spade.

It is hard to disagree with Sharif’s narrative. But coming from him at this juncture sounded rather odd.

How can a person who has been thrice prime minister, completely delink himself from the security and foreign policies of the past decades? During the four years of his tenure that only ended last July he jealously kept the portfolio of foreign affairs with himself.

The PML-N government at the federal level and in the Punjab still rules the roost. Sharif could simply ask his handpicked Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to convince the military leadership to follow the party chief’s sane advice.

Actually, ground realities are somewhat different. The so-called NAP (National Action) that was formulated three years ago after developing complete consensus between the military and civilian leadership, still remains largely unimplemented.

In fact, there was active resistance from the Punjab government to deployment of paramilitary forces to weed out terrorists holed in the province. Only after a lot of prodding the Chief Minister Punjab Mian Shahbaz Sharif relented.

At one time the Sharif government was willing to sit with the Taliban for a negotiated settlement. When the head of the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in North Waziristan in November 2013 in a drone attack the Taliban pulled the plug on the charade of peace talks.

At the time then Interior Minister Nisar Ali khan famously lamented that the drone attack was on peace. Actually, Sharif and his PML-N outfit historically has remained not part of the solution but part of the problem.

The former US ambassador to the UN, Afghanistan and Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad in an article in the National Interest magazine ominously titled, “it’s time to end Pakistan’s double game” has advised the US administration to engage people of Pakistan through Nawaz Sharif.

According to him Sharif in his latest statement has called for abandoning “self-deception” by Pakistan. Khalilzad who is a vocal critic of Islamabad’s alleged support for the jihadists and the Haqqani network considers the former Prime Minister important as ‘his family dominates the largest province Punjab and his brother most likely will be the next prime minister’.

But mea culpa is his advice to the Trump administration, “to consider how to help mobilize civilian opponents of support for terror (in Pakistan) against the military supporters.”

Rather than falling prey to the hawkish elements in the establishment and the section of the media Pakistan has given a measured response in the face of Washington’s bullying tactics. But also unlike the past this time bullying by the US carries a price tag too.

Hence it is axiomatic that Pakistan makes sincere efforts to develop a Modus vivendi with the Trump administration. Of course, maintaining our self-respect and paying a price for it is important.

However, we should not only weed out terrorists using our territory for adventures in the neighbourhood but also be seen and recognized for doing so. Right now, there is a wide credibility gap that needs to be filled. We simply cannot afford further damage to our international standing even with some of our friends.