Neither of the main players want a delay in elections
As the Model Town incident report provided mere observations as opposed to accusations followed by concrete recommendations to follow up and arrest the main culprits, Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) chief Tahirul Qadri along with the support of PTI and PPP has taken upon himself to get justice for the families of the deceased.
An unnatural alliance between the PPP with PAT- already being supported by ‘dharna days’ ally PTI- and PSP to name a few have come together to put pressure on the ruling party PML-N. Yesterday’s APC (All Parties Conference) in Lahore with representation of 40 parties present was part of the same agenda with Qadri also accusing Nawaz of bribing his way into politics.
With Nawaz out of the picture and Shahbaz Sharif now confirmed now as the next prime ministerial candidate he is target number one for the opposition going into elections 2018. After the Hudaibiya case was not reopened by the Supreme Court the Model Town incident becomes the only remaining ‘sword of Damocles’ over the younger Sharif’s head.
PAT and the PPP have no political power in Punjab and therefore electorally have only to gain and nothing to lose by allying with the PTI against PML-N. It is unlikely that both the major contenders in Punjab – PTI and PML-N – would want a delay in the elections as a result of collective street agitation by the parties present at the APC.
During the APC Qadri also gave a deadline of 7th January for Shahbaz Sharif and Rana Sanaullah to resign or face massive protests. As far as members of the APC go apart from the PTI no other party is of any consequence when it comes to collecting enough people on the streets to make an impact. The best PAT would be able to do is manage a solo sit-in similar to the one in 2013 when PPP was in power.
After the Faizabad episode it has become highly unlikely for the PML-N to secure a simple majority in the 2018 elections. As such the PTI would rather deploy its resources towards campaigning rather than a sit-in. The party will still attend all the APC’s and make the necessary statements against the Model Town incident to show support for Qadri – nothing more nothing less.