Two years after Libyan political rivals signed a UN-sponsored political agreement in Morocco, there are many future scenarios expected amid difficulty to implement the due, with obstacles of substantial disagreements over articles concerning the executive authority and army leadership.
Moussa Faraj, head of the dialogue committee of the Tripoli-based Higher Council of State, believes that the expiry of the agreement is linked only to the Presidential Council and the Government of National Accord.
“In all cases, the term of the government shall terminate immediately upon the formation of the executive authority according to the constitution, or the end of the specified term, whichever is closer,” Faraj told Xinhua.
“The (eastern-based) House of Representatives did not approve the government so far. Therefore, the political agreement continues until elections are held under the constitution,” Faraj said.
Libya’s political factions signed a UN-sponsored agreement on Dec, 17, 2015, which appointed the Government of National Accord and the Higher Council of State, or consultative council.
House of Representatives member Omar Ghaith believes that the political agreement, despite its shortcomings, remains possible framework for a political settlement in the country.
“I believe the agreement is fragile and flawed from the beginning, and needs to be drafted in such a way as to ensure it is implemented in accordance with a binding map to all parties,” Ghaith told Xinhua.
“Over time, the agreement has become the only framework with the absence of an alternative. If we agree that Dec. 17 is the end of the agreement, what is the future of Libya?” Ghaith said.
Ghaith warned against more dispute on legitimacy that may lead to former parties appearing again on the grounds if the current political parties of the agreement are expired. Thus, problems and political alignment would appear again.
Ali Sweih, member of the Tripoli-based Higher Council of State, stressed that there is no other alternative to the agreement, and those who oppose it “did not come up with an agreed solution or a program to end the division.”
“We supported the agreement because it is the remaining hope for the Libyan people. The people are tired of the politicians and their false promises,” Sweih said.
“Unfortunately, people have reached a stage where they do not care about the Skhirat agreement or anything else. They just want to improve their living and economic situation and restore stability to the country that has been exhausted by rivalry of politicians,” Sweih added.
The House of Representatives in November adopted the UN-proposed formula for amendment of the political agreement. However, the Higher Council of State rejected the formula, and announced possibility of holding early elections.
Moussa Faraj, head of the council’s dialogue committee, said the council did reject the amendment, but added that the agreement had positive and constructive aspects.
“The objection was mainly to the second article of the proposal, which included the mechanism of choosing the presidential council. The article restricted the choosing to one party, the House of Representatives, and eliminated the council,” Faraj told Xinhua.
“According to the provisions of the political agreement, the link between (the Council and the House of Representatives) is consensus. The current stage cannot tolerate unilateral security, political and economic decisions. Moreover, a unilateral division to choose the presidential council violates the consensus and partnership of the next stage,” Faraj explained.
Parliament member Omar Ghaith responded Faraj’s argument by saying that the Council should determine its position quickly and that the country’s interest should prevail over political objectives of some parties.
“As for the parliament, UN Envoy Ghassan Salame was told not to wait too long, and that the issue with the council should be resolved quickly. Salame informed us that he has extensive contacts with the council to solve the problem of rejecting the proposal,” Ghaith said.
Ghaith stressed that a majority of the members of the council agree to the proposal, with the exception the mechanisms of the formation of the presidential council. “They want to share the selection of the presidential council with the House of Representatives. There are proposals to increase the number of candidates through the list of nominations from 10 to 25. These proposals are not approved yet.”
“We are trying to resolve the matter and avoid such a step, which we may be forced to do. We demand that the Higher Council of State gives priority to the supreme interest (of the country) and not force us make a move that we don’t want. We want to agree to unify the institutions through a single government that will lead us to elections, which will end all forms of division and fragmentation,” Ghaith said regarding concerns that the parliament might unilaterally include the amendment of the agreement into the constitutional declaration without prior approval of the Higher Council of State.
Moussa Faraj said the agreement does not allow one party to take any unilateral actions. “There is no alternative to consensus, which may be possible if everyone is convinced that the Libyans are partners at home and that the current stage is a stage of consensus and partnership, not a demanding stage,” Faraj said.
The House of Representatives is preparing to hold a decisive session next week to discuss inclusion of the amendment of the agreement into the constitutional declaration, an interim constitution, without approval of the Higher Council of State.
Article 12 of the Additional Provisions of the political agreement states that any amendments requested by the House of Representatives or the Higher Council of State shall be made by a Joint Committee and shall be voted on separately.
“There is no agreement or consensus on the mandate of General Khalifa Haftar (commander of the eastern-based army) to run the country. This is not possible legally or popularly. If this happens, the situation in Libya would be confused, because the army commander may have authority in the east of the country, but not in the west where armed militias will not accept him. The south is also divided over the army,” Ghaith said regarding options available in case the agreement fails, and the chance of the army taking over the country.
Ali Sweih believes that the amendment and restructuring of the presidential council and removal of ministers from the government may be a solution in the event of delayed amendment of the political agreement.
“Betting on the military solution is stupid and an attempt to bring Libya into a dark tunnel again. We will not use weapons against each other, especially that the situation has improved with reconciliation between tribes and cities and re-cohesion among the Libyan people, plagued by armed conflict over the past few years,” Sweih said.
In the popular circles in Libya, there is a possibility of resorting to the authorization of the eastern-based army to take over the country, in the event of failure of the political agreement.
Youth rallies in the east of the country have launched large-scale campaigns to collect 2 million signatures to mandate General Haftar to run the country amid political division.