Democracy under fire?

Or a self-fulfilling prophecy

A miasma of foreboding has engulfed the nation just like the current winter fog. A noxious air of uncertainty fueled by squabbling politicians pervades our body politics.

It all started with the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif as prime minister by the apex court in the Panama case last July. Despite the PML-N still being in power Sharif’s belligerent stance – incessantly attacking the army and the judiciary for his ouster – has not helped matters.

National Assembly speaker Ayaz Sadiq’s recent statement that he does not see the assemblies completing their term, as he apprehended “a greater plan” in the offing was the icing on the cake. Sadiq is not one of the ubiquitous doomsayers predicting unraveling of the system on the idiot box.

As custodian of the lower house his words matter. Why has he thrown in the towel? According to him matters are worse than 2002 and 2008 and that has to be taken seriously.

Is Ayaz Sadiq implicitly complaining about the increasing role of a meddlesome military, about the squabbling politicians or is he bitter about the recalcitrance of his own leadership? Perhaps a combination of all of the above has disheartened the worthy speaker.

The holding of general elections on time once the assemblies complete their term on June 5 next year have become doubtful owing to the lack of consensus on delimitation of electoral constituencies under the provisional results of the census. The PPP by its repeated no show in the Senate has effectively blocked the 24th Constitutional Amendment Bill.

Apparently, a multiparty huddle convened by prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi the other day has finally reached a consensus on the proposed amendment clearing the decks for the passage of the constitutional amendment. Nonetheless still there are a lot of slip between the cup and the lip.

The parliament should hold politicians accountable rather than the judiciary under a spurious arbitrary law banning them for life

Ostensibly the PPP had a number of preconditions not directly related to the proposed amendment. According to some, the PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari wants the Sindh IG, A.D Khawaja who is sticking on to his job against the wishes of the Sindh government to be recalled by the federal government. Insiders claim that behind the scene nudging and persuasion has made the mare go.

It is indeed ironical that politicians complain about those not mandated for interfering in what is essentially their domain. However, they seek help from the same military that they otherwise abhor for meddling in their affairs to clean up the dirty mess created by them.

The recent Islamabad sit-in by various right wing religious groups gripped the country paralysing life in the federal capital. The government through its sheer ineptitude bordering on cluelessness let it fester for over three weeks. In the end it invited the army in aid of civilian power to break the impasse through use of brute force.

The military refusing to play ball instead brokered a deal through negotiations. The government is now accused of capitulating to religious zealots and extremists.

Quite true. Admittedly the military and para-military personnel could have handled the matter more tactfully. But what other option was left for the government after boxing itself into a corner through its own incompetence. To have a Lal Masjid type situation at their hands with its appended consequences would have been disastrous.

Another sore point between the government and the opposition are the long-awaited FATA (Federally Administrated Tribal Areas) reforms formally merging the wild west of the country as part of Pakistan. Here also the government despite a consensus amongst all the mainstream parties is procrastinating.

It does not want to alienate its allies, JUI-F (Jamiat Ulema-e Islam-F) chief Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman and PkMAP (Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party) chief Mahmood Khan Achakzai. Both gentlemen have their own different reasons to oppose the proposed FATA reforms.

The JUI-F chief wants to keep the stranglehold of the clergy in possibly the most backward region of the country. While the nationalist Achakzai whose family has benefitted the most during the PML-N regime does not consider the area as even part of Pakistan.

True to his ilk he does not even recognize the Durand line as the de jure border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But reportedly a little help is being sought from the omnipresent establishment to ‘persuade’ the Maulana not to oppose the FATA reforms.

The state of governance (or rather lack of it) has exacerbated the sense of uncertainty in the country. Paradoxically in sharp contrast to the Nawaz Sharif period, there is a seamless relationship between the military leadership and the PML-N government headed by prime minister Abbasi.

But his meddlesome party chief who insists on doing back seat driving hamstrings Abbasi. Since finance minister Ishaq Dar’s surreptitious decamping to London on the pretext of medical treatment, the country’s economy is being run without a finance minister.

Dar since then has been declared a proclaimed offender by NAB (the National Accountability Bureau) and is technically on an indefinite leave. But Sharif has vetoed all moves to find his replacement. Ostensibly he wants to keep the seat warm for his close consort and samadhi (daughter’s father in law).

The Pakistani Rupee touching 110 rupees plus to a dollar is an engineered free fall on the prodding of the IMF. Dar and his mentor Sharif were artificially overvaluing the currency by pumping in millions of dollars in the market from reserves to manage the rupee/dollar parity.

Had it been done gradually the economy would have absorbed it. Thanks to Dar’s ego driven mantra the nation will have to pay through its nose for the enforced devaluation.

The Supreme Court absolving the PTI chief Imran Khan while disqualifying Jahangir Tareen for life is the ultimate balancing act. Nevertheless, it is time to take a fresh look by parties across the spectrum at the toxic Article 62(1) F and article 63 inserted by dictator Zia-ul-Haq in the name of Islam.

The parliament should hold politicians accountable rather than the judiciary under a spurious arbitrary law banning them for life.

The apex court by ruling against reviving of the Hudabiya paper mills case is a source of disappointment for Shahbaz Sharif’s opponents namely the PTI and out of job politicians like Sheikh Rashid. After Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification they were keen that Shahbaz Sharif should be blackballed as well.

The Sharif brothers out of reckoning would have given a relatively uncontested field for the PTI in Punjab in the next elections. Instead of essentially fighting political battles politically Khan and his ilk have the propensity to seek a little help from the courts.

The case against the PTI chief and its general secretary filed by PML-N stalwart Hanif Abbasi smacked of political vendetta. Nonetheless, Imran and Tareen both have met their comeuppance through the verdict.

All decks are cleared for Shahbaz Sharif as the prime ministerial candidate in the next elections. However, his elder brother is yet to publicly give his younger brother his blessings.

Both Sharif and his daughter Maryam are poised to be convicted in the NAB references against them. Then why not make a graceful exit from the race rather than trying to install his daughter against all odds?

Perhaps Sharif’s silence on the matter has engendered demoralisation in the ruling party that seems to be rudderless right now. The kind of revolutionary fervour displayed by the party chief is somehow not shared by a majority of the party MNAs.

Unless the NA speaker is privy to some inside information, the military does not seem to have the desire or the gumption to topple an elected government. It is the politicians that need to set their house in order lest their laments might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.