The politics of expediency

And the demise of COD

The so-called Charter of Democracy (COD) signed with much fanfare in London in 2006 by two exiled politicians, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, met its natural death in Lahore last Thursday. Since for long, for all practical purposes the accord was abeyant.

But PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari formally buried it when he decided to break bread with Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) founding leader Allama Tahir-ul-Qadri at his Minhaj-ul-Quran secretariat. In a joint presser Zardari vociferously demanded that Shahbaz Sharif must go as he is guilty as charged in the Baqir Najfi inquiry report on the Model Town massacre in which at least 14 members of the PAT were killed as a result of indiscriminate firing by the Punjab police in June 2014.

It is obvious that after the exit of Nawaz Sharif, courtesy the apex court, the opposition wants the younger Sharif’s scalp as well. Zardari assured the PTI chief that his party would support its agitation on the street, in favour of its demands.

The PTI chief Imran Khan proffered a similar assurance to the enigmatic Allama. The one-man demolition squad Sheikh Rashid is already on board to accomplish his mission to destroy the Sharifs. And apparently the Chaudhrys of Gujrat have also lent their support to the PAT chief.

Ironically there is not much common between the mainstream political parties and PAT that does not have a single seat in the parliament. For example, the PPP is in power in Sindh and is the largest opposition party in the parliament. Similarly, the PTI is the third largest party in the parliament whereas it is ruling in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

So far as the PML-Q is concerned – the former king’s party of General (r) Pervez Musharraf – is decimated to the extent that apart from Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain its president and his cousin Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi there is hardly anyone of consequence left in the party.

Imran Khan hates Zardari perhaps even more than Shahbaz Sharif. He has said many a times in his public meetings and pressers that after Sharif it was ‘Zardari ki bari’ (Zardari’s turn) to be shunted out for corruption.

Perhaps the only common strand in the opposition’s agenda is the visceral hatred for the Sharifs. The so-called minus-two (the Sharif brothers) formula suits the PTI just fine

Perhaps the only common strand in the opposition’s agenda is the visceral hatred for the Sharifs. The so-called minus-two (the Sharif brothers) formula suits the PTI just fine.

The attrition of the Sharifs and their party is the sine qua non for the PTI in order to grab the jewel in the crown, Punjab, in the next general elections. That is why the Khan has already launched a concerted campaign in the province through frequent public meetings virtually in every nook and corner of the province.

But the question that begs an answer here is what is in it for Zardari if the younger Sharif is actually forced to quit in the face of a joint putsch by the opposition? One explanation could be that the PPP has revised its earlier stance that elections should be held on time in order to block the PML-N attaining a majority in the Senate elections due to be held in March next year.

Though the PPP and the PTI hate each other’s guts, anything is possible in politics of expediency. The other day the PPP senator Saeed Ghani asserted that if the PTI restrained from attacking Zardari anymore, the PPP will have no qualms in joining hands with its nemesis on a one-point agenda – the ouster of the Sharifs.

But the PML-N despite its recent bad fortunes might be a hard nut to crack. So far as Nawaz Sharif is concerned he is down but certainly not out.

Despite serious charges of corruption against him, he has successfully managed to overcome challenges to his leadership. Thanks to a mixture of ineptness and opportunism on the part of the opposition in the parliament he has managed to retain the presidency of the party. He is unlikely to face any fresh legal threat on this count.

Sharif unlike his younger brother has exponentially ramped up the pressure against the judiciary and the ubiquitous establishment. Shahbaz who is the PML-N’s presumptive candidate for premiership in the next general elections has been unable to persuade his brother to soften his hard stance.

Admittedly there is a method in the madness of the elder Sharif. Despite his party in power at the federal level and in Punjab, he and his senior party stalwarts (most of them federal ministers) are playing the role of a recalcitrant opposition.

It is obvious that Sharif is the only show in town for the PML-N in the elections. Shahbaz despite being somewhat of a technocratic and hard-working Chief Minister of Punjab is no vote grabber.

Zardari who is not new to the game knows fully well that he himself, his late wife Benazir Bhutto and the founder of the party Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto faced the wrath of the establishment during their times. In fact, both – the senior Bhutto and his daughter – lost their lives as a result of mechanizations of military strongmen against them for struggling for democracy.

Then why has Zardari lost his patience with the Sharifs? The obvious answer is that despite the fact that he twice bailed him out, Sharif treated him shabbily.

But it also suited Zardari to rescue Sharif, by supporting him in the parliament for the sake of democracy, partly owing to sheer self-interest as well. The PPP co-chairperson however rightly felt feels bitter at Sharif’s churlish behaviour.

Only a day earlier to PPP-PAT meet, Bilawal Bhutto the chairman of the Party, emphasized that elections will be held on time. However, Zardari senior’s recent moves suggest otherwise.

Bilawal is spot on that elections should be held on time, rather than earlier. Unless in the unlikely possibility of democracy being derailed through extra constitutional means there is hardly any chance of showing the door to the PML-N government.

The COAS (Chief of Army Staff) General Qamar Javed Bajwa himself has reaffirmed the Army’s commitment to democracy despite expressing some reservations. Nonetheless the military neither has the gumption nor the desire to intervene.

Another option could be engineering mass defections in the ruling party. Otherwise even if the whole opposition unites to bring a no-confidence motion against the PML-N government it is unlikely to succeed.

The PTI in KP and the PPP in Sindh could dissolve their respective governments to precipitate premature general elections. This is also not likely to happen. Neither the PPP nor the PTI seem willing to oblige.

However, if the PML-N continues downhill, it could lose the plot as well. Hence, talks between the government and the opposition, perhaps seems to be the best course available.

All the thorny outstanding issues including calling of the general elections and legislation to ensure that they are held on time can be sorted out in such negotiations. But perhaps it might be already too late for that.