The mystery deepens
Reports Saturday morning of Ishaq Dar’s resignation, allegedly encouraged by Shahbaz Sharif and Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, were officially denied by the ruling party only after doing the rounds all day, which betrays a degree of push-and-pull within PML-N. Considering the finance minister’s indictment on corruption charges and the non-bailable arrest warrant, PML-N does itself no favour by keeping him tied to the ministry, especially since he’s clearly unable to do much about the economy. It seems, despite contrary trends strengthening within the party, that Nawaz Sharif has ruled out his resignation to avoid giving an impression of weakness, lest his whole front-foot, defiant position so far unravels like a house of cards.
Yet the longer Dar evades the court cases, and hence stays away, the stronger calls, and need, for his resignation will become. The finance ministry is, in many ways, one of the most important charges in the cabinet. And, contrary to Dar’s own understanding of the present state of the economy, it is far from something to write home about. Growth has fallen below target, as always. Tall claims to breathe some life into exports, despite the GSP-plus window, etc, have failed to materialise. Only movement on tax revenues has come from indirect, unfair taxation, which has only squeezed the already small, tax-paying middle class further. Hence the external account black hole and unprecedented bulge in the deficit.
With international oil prices rising, the artificial cushion this government has enjoyed throughout the electoral cycle is also vanishing. The economy has become so vulnerable that, despite promise after promise, there’s little on the horizon but another program with the Fund; and sometime before the election. And, at the risk of repetition, the country faces this situation with an absentee finance minister. Already, the political uncertainty created by Nawaz Sharif has led to an investor exodus from the capital market, wrecking the stock exchange. Now it threatens to break the real economy. For the sake of the country and economy, more than anything else, this mystery must come to an end and Ishaq Dar must immediately resign as finance minister.
