The enigmatic Sharif

• And his pursuit of civilian supremacy

Perhaps this is the new normal: weakened and emasculated civilian institutions ceding power to other instructions like the military and the judiciary

 

It is unfortunate that the two major parties in the parliament, the PML-N and the PPP, are engaged in a shouting fest. Both parties have cooperated in the past in the parliament to strengthen democratic institutions

Nawaz Sharif is an enigma both for his many supporters as well as his opponents. After his return to Pakistan he has reiterated his oft-repeated mantra since many years now that he will not take any dictation.

The first time he said that in an address to the nation was when he was prime minister in April 1993. A meddlesome president, Ghulam Ishaq Khan — armed with article 58-2(b) of the constitution that gave him unfettered powers — promptly sacked him.

Although the controversial article was repealed after Sharif returned to power in 1997, ever since he has been on the wrong end of the stick with the powerful Pakistani establishment. He did not get along with any of the army chiefs while he was prime minister including General Aslam Beg, Asif Nawaz, Waheed Kakar, Jehangir Karamat and Pervez Musharraf.

It was assumed that Sharif had learnt his lessons the hard way. Hence it was not surprising when he continued with his good rapport with General Raheel Sharif despite what could be termed as provocations. Nonetheless when the time came, despite his brother Shehbaz Sharif imploring him, he refused to extend the term of the khaki Sharif as COAS.

The recent London moot, where Prime Minister Abbasi and Shehbaz Sharif had gone to plead with him to take a softer line towards the military leadership, has only shown mixed results. Sharif is still adamant and does not seem to be backing off. After his hearing in the NAB court on Friday he came out very hard on the courts and how the higher judiciary had been legitimising military dictators in the past.

He is not willing to take a back seat, as his pro-establishment advisors including Shehbaz and Nisar would like him to do. The former prime minister is due to address a public meeting on 12 November at Abbottabad.

Hence not only he is not backing off but playing on the front foot. Much to the chagrin of the doves he presumably has reached the conclusion that offense is the best defence for him.

Sharif probably correctly reckons that no matter how he behaves the dice is heavily loaded against him. Nonetheless the PML-N would not rock the boat to the extent that it is ousted or sabotaged in the parliament even before the senate elections next March.

The former prime minister, although in principle agreeing with the minus-one formula that means that his brother will succeed him as the prime ministerial candidature in the next elections, has made no such formal announcement. Nor is he going to do that any time soon.

It is obvious that his daughter Maryam Nawaz has replaced Shehbaz Sharif as his close consort and principal advisor. After pulling it off in the NA-120 bye-election singlehandedly her clout within the party has increased manifold.

Both the father and the daughter are on the same page on dealing with the institutions. Maryam in a recent interview publicly differed with her father that he made too many compromises (with the establishment) while he was prime minister.

However, contrary to the commonly held perception that Maryam entreated her father to take a hard line on the issue of the Dawn Leaks tweet, it was Sharif who was adamant that the army should withdraw the tweet that had rejected the government notification on the leaks.

Maryam was of the view that the military high command will not take this lying down and would interpret the withdrawal of the tweet as the ultimate humiliation at the hands of the civilians. This is what happened and according to some it proved to be the proverbial last straw.

Sharif’s close circles claim that they would continue to struggle for civilian supremacy, even if that means sitting on the opposition benches. These are noble thoughts, but walking the talk will be difficult for a traditionally pro-establishment party like the PML-N.

There was an interesting debate in the senate on civ-mil relations last Thursday. PPP senator Farhatullah Babar claimed that the powers of the parliament, judiciary and the civilian establishment were being shifted from Islamabad to Rawalpindi. If true a soft coup without a whimper has already taken place.

Babar lamented the fact that the parliament missed the chance to bring everyone under the ambit of accountability, as it had been decided (under the proposed law) to hold everyone accountable including the judges and the generals. Initially the PPP had supported an all-inclusive accountability law but at the last moment backed off.

Interestingly, Sharif’s own party never backed the idea of an all-encompassing accountability law that would include the military and the judiciary in its ambit. This makes a mockery of due process and across the board accountability.

It means that politicians lament about being singled out for victimisation in the name of accountability but are unwilling to bell the cat lest it ruffles feathers of the powers that be. Hence supremacy of the parliament in an institutional framework remains a pipedream.

Perhaps this is the new normal: weakened and emasculated civilian institutions ceding power to other instructions like the military and the judiciary.

Sharif has also ruled out the possibility of another NRO (national reconciliation ordinance) like the one reached between Pervez Musharraf and late Benazir Bhutto. The agreement paved the way for Ms Bhutto’s return from exile and subsequently of the Sharifs.

The sections of the media buttressed by the PTI chief Imran Khan speculating about the possibility of an NRO are perhaps overlooking some important differences between now and 2007. For starters who will be the competent authority to enact another NRO?

Back in 2007 it was President General Musharraf. Surely the present military chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is in no position to enact such a ‘mukk mukaa” (underhand deal). Already, according to some sources, Sharif was ‘advised’ to stay away abroad because safe passage from NAB references could not be guaranteed for him.

However, the former prime minister after weighing his options refused to play ball. He is back and has ruled out a life in exile.

It is unfortunate that the two major parties in the parliament, the PML-N and the PPP, are engaged in a shouting fest. Both parties have cooperated in the past in the parliament to strengthen democratic institutions.

Zardari rightly feels that Sharif, as prime minister, abandoned him to please the military establishment. Now the ousted prime minister has alleged that the PPP co-chairperson is criticising him to please the same powers.

It is well known that Sharif’s various overtures to contact Zardari have come to naught. It is in PPP’s interest, as well as the PML-N’s, to have some kind of rapport with each other. But many a times the personal overcomes the political, like in this case.