The post and the challenges
The PML-N top leadership which met in London has nominated Shahbaz Sharif as the future Prime Minister after the 2018 elections in case Nawaz Sharif remains ineligible to run for the office. The announcement would remove an important grievance of PML-N dissenters.
Nawaz Sharif had initially rejected the idea of nominating Shahbaz Sharif for the post. The opposition maintained that the elder brother was wary of letting the premiership as well as the key office of the Punjab Chief Minister slip out of the hands of his own branch of the family. Meanwhile those around Maryam Nawaz had started presenting her as the Prime Minister in waiting. Nawaz Sharif has however been forced by circumstances to reverse his earlier stand.
Shahbaz Sharif is energetic and hardworking. Administering Pakistan, however, is qualitatively different from running Punjab. Unlike a Chief Minister the Prime Minister has to possess a good understanding of foreign affairs to be able to guide the Foreign Minister. To interact with other parties he has to be cool, tolerant and accommodative. To manage the affairs of a federation he has to be aware of the sensitivities of smaller provinces. Additionally he has to possess the art of conflict resolution. The Prime Minister also has to have a deeper understanding of, and an empathy with, the religious and sectarian minorities. Only time will show whether Shahbaz has the qualities to be an effective PM.
Shahbaz Sharif has maintained good relations with the military establishment which is considered his strong point by the PML-N. But political governments need to try to regain their turf ceded to other players.
The issue of Shahbaz Sharif’s successor in Punjab continues to remain a hot potato. Will the new nominee be a scion of the Sharif family or a powerless replica of Ghulam Haider Wyne? Anyone chosen from among the younger Sharifs is bound to reignite the family rivalries. A powerless outsider would require Shahbaz to perform the functions of both the PM and Chief Minister, making a mess of both in the process.