Post Tillerson

The chips have fallen

The ‘do more’ this time came in signature Trump style, manifesting itself, ultimately, in a clear tilt towards India, but it’s yet to break fresh ground. Both Obama and George W cried themselves hoarse with the safe haven and do more concerns; yet here we stand. So, unless Trump introduces sanctions, there’s no novelty. And some things have changed over time, of course. Pakistan has, to its credit, undertaken numerous military operations in these years; clearly uprooting much, if not all, of the terrorist infrastructure in the tribal area. Subsequent intel-based and sweeping operations, particularly in urban centres, still have some course to run, but overall there has been a pretty visible trajectory of improvement.

Yet some things have not changed. Some of the militant groups that were banned simply turned up again under different names; while some have even entered the political arena. And, as became clear after the BRICS summit not too long ago, even all-weather friends like China are expressing concern about some of our alleged linkages with some outfits that have gained national and international notoriety. The fizzling out of American warmth towards Pakistan, in the present regional setting, is encouraging a deepening multi-purpose friendship between India and Afghanistan; with Uncle Sam’s blessings, of course.

The months and years ahead require very careful maneuvering by Pakistan if it is to keep from being isolated. True, there’s always the windfall that come with CPEC, but putting all eggs in that one basket while everything around it breaks apart would not be the smartest strategy to adopt. Talk of Pakistan entering a grand alliance that includes China, Russia, Iran – perhaps even Qatar — is simply speculation for the moment. We still have much to do to overcome the trust deficit with Iran, for example. And, not to forget, whenever America draws away there is also a sudden distance, of sorts, with crucial international financial donors; something that never bodes well for states addicted to borrowing, even for day-to-day survival. Tillerson’s visit did, however, imply that the chips have finally fallen and Pakistan does not figure too prominently in America’s immediate plans.