What’s next for Nawaz and Imran?

LAHORE: Nawaz Sharif enjoyed a productive short stay in Pakistan because of the passage of Electoral Reforms Bill 2017 and his subsequent reinstatement as president of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

Mystery still surrounds the ruling party’s success in getting the Bill through Senate by one vote (38-37) though despite its minority in the Upper House. PTI and MQM took action against respective senators that diverted from party lines, while PPP senators’ absence went largely unaddressed.

Yet celebrating the return as party head might be as far as Nawaz’s comeback plan stretches since he’s still disqualified from holding public office. PML-N leaders, however, dispute the implied ‘indefinite’ nature of the disqualification because Article 62-1(F) of the constitution is silent on the duration and the Supreme Court did not spell out the permanence in its judgement.

Constitutional amendment?

But legal and political experts outside PML-N agree that the disqualification is permanent.

“The only way Nawaz Sharif can contest an election again is by adding a time limit to such disqualifications through a constitutional amendment,” said Saiful Mulook, Supreme Court advocate and former vice president of the Lahore High Court Bar Association (LHCBA). “But that, even if possible to engineer, would still rule him out of the next electoral cycle.”

There is also the matter of NAB references against the Sharif family, which have a Supreme Court ordered cut-off date of six months. And since NAB Ordinance mandates that convictions also carry an automatic 10-year bar from holding public office, Nawaz’s future is far from clear.

“The return to party presidency is a good symbolic win for Nawaz Sharif,” said Ayaz Amir, veteran journalist and political analyst. “But that is about it.”

After the GT Road rally and NA-120 victory, getting the PML-N presidency back means the optics are playing out well for the ousted prime minister.

It also means Nawaz has managed to hold the party together.

“The prospect of Shehbaz’s ascent had led to news reports of possible divisions in the party and Nawaz has stopped such cracks from developing,” added Ayaz.

Defiance:

PML-N leaders, on the other hand, do not entertain questions about a possible constitutional amendment just yet because they believe Nawaz’s disqualification can be overturned.

“The MNA Justice (r) Iftikhar Cheema case set a clear precedent,” said Daniyal Aziz, federal minister of privatisation and one of PML-N’s most prominent spokespersons. “He was disqualified for concealing assets yet he was also back in the National Assembly in 45 days.”

The Supreme Court disqualified PML-N MNA Justice (r) Iftikhar Cheema, who was elected in the May 2013 general election from Punjab’s Gujranwala-VII NA-101 constituency, for concealing his assets, in January 2016.

But he simply resubmitted his nomination papers in the next by-election, which the Election Commission accepted, and won again.

“Since a precedent has clearly been set, the same rules must apply to Nawaz Sharif,” Daniyal said.

Legal experts are of the opinion that disqualification from public office is of two types; one under election laws as encapsulated in the Representation of People Act, 1976 (ROPA) and the other under Articles 62 and 63 of the constitution. The former is a technical bar, which can be lifted at any time, while the latter is permanent, hence no mention of timeframe.

And Imran Khan?

Meanwhile, Imran Khan’s future has also plunged into uncertainty just as PTI was drawing political advantage from Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification.

As Hanif Abbasi’s case against him nears completion, Imran’s counsel’s inability to satisfy the bench about GBP100,000 sitting in the accounts of Niazi Services Limited (NSL), an offshore company of which Imran was beneficial owner till it was dissolved in 2015, has dominated the headlines.

Abbasi’s counsel has repeatedly argued that Imran’s omission of assets in his nomination papers mirrors Nawaz’s case and therefore also deserves disqualification.

But PTI, at least, is not too worried.

“The basic premise of Hanif Abbasi’s case revolved around money laundering,” said Fawad Chaudhry, PTI leader and spokesman. Imran was accused of using laundered money to purchase his Bani Gala residence. “But once we provided nine banking transactions the money trail was established and the case was effectively finished.”

Then, he said, the chief justice enquired about Imran’s London flat. It was not declared in the 1997 election because the law about asset declaration was introduced by Gen Musharraf in 2002. Once the financing and declaration of the flat was clear, the chief justice asked about NSL, which was also not declared.

“A company is legally a person which cannot be owned,” explained Fawad. “You can own shares in companies, which Imran did not in NSL, he was just the beneficial owner.”

And the benefit extended to owning his London apartment, which he did declare once legal formalities demanded it.

‘Not even minus-one-percent chance’:

“As far as the ‘mysterious’ GBP100,000 is concerned, it was kept to cover litigation expenses arising from a court case involving a tenant.”

Since the court found no dishonesty on Imran’s part, and said so repeatedly during the hearing, PTI leaders are confident he will avoid the axe. There is not even “minus-one-percent chance” that Imran Khan will be disqualified, Fawad said.

“The most the court might do is order a detailed investigation into the matter, perhaps even form an investigation team or a commission, but I do not see a disqualification,” Advocate Saif of the Supreme Court said.

Political observers, too, largely do not expect Imran to be disqualified. And PML-N is expected to maneuver through parliament once again to introduce yet another constitutional amendment.

But that, like the Electoral Reforms Bill 2017, will require another mysterious victory in the Senate where PML-N remains in minority. It’s not likely that PTI, especially if Imran survives the Abbasi scare, or MQM will repeat last time’s mistake. That leaves PPP as the only door for PML-N to knock on.