The future
The shift from “Why did they disqualify me?” to “I know why they disqualified me” didn’t just betray a subtle, though significant, shift in Nawaz’s posture, it also deepened the many opposing forces at play within PML-N. It is no longer the case that in trying to build momentum Nawaz and his senior aides might be upsetting the balance between institutions a little. It is, to the contrary, quite clearly core Nawaz strategy to pit institutions against each other. That means, among other things, that the premier defender of democracy of the present electoral cycle is now the chief protagonist in breaking down the democratic process.
Yet it’s still not clear if this is also core PML-N strategy. Shahid Khaqan is doing a decent enough job of running the government, after all. Some senior ministers, who have backed Nawaz’s defiance till now, are beginning to weigh the benefits of embroiling their own government in serious controversy. Pretty much the same goes for lower-tier loudmouths who have suddenly been catapulted into the ministries. Then there are other frictions in the party. That some among the old guard are not on talking terms for years is no longer breaking news. But now there are also those who are just not for attacking the establishment just because the Sharifs bungled their case.
The cleavage runs deeper. Though not all that comes from the grapevine can be immediately trusted; there does seem some truth behind rumours indicating some distance between the Sharif brothers. Shahbaz, like his friend Ch Nisar, is a welcome guest at Rawalpindi and would rather do without a spoiler. But all this would not even matter if the NAB references bring more bad news. Put the Hudaibiya Mills case on top of it and, should push come to shove, the possibility of much, if not all, of the Sharif clan being written off cannot be ruled out. Perhaps Nawaz should take a step back now and think his strategy through once again. It would be better if he deals with his legal troubles before plunging the entire governing system into disarray.