Darnomics at a dead-end

And Sharifs legal woes

His role, apart from being the custodian of the economy,

is to interact with the IFIs (International Financial Institutions) and the donor countries as well.

The military is also an important stakeholder he has to deal with on a regular basis

 

As if the Sharif family’s legal woes were not enough to keep them away in London, Ishaq Dar, close consort and finance minister, has also been forced to join them. He has been declared an absconder by NAB (the National Accountability Bureau). 

It is obvious that the Sharifs have already taken a strategic decision not to return to Pakistan to face accountability. The first daughter and heir apparent Maryam Nawaz, soon after reaching London after the NA-120 by election victory, advised her father not to appear before the accountability court, calling it a farce. Following signature Sharif family logic she contended that her father should not fall prey to political and personal victimisation in the garb of accountability.

With Nawaz Sharif’s wife undergoing cancer treatment in London, the Sharif family could have proffered a genuine excuse for a no-show at the NAB court. Nonetheless Maryam, by declaring NAB a kangaroo court, has clearly struck a defiant note.

This entails that the entire Sharif family, with the possible exception of the former prime minister’s ailing spouse, has taken a calculated decision to stay away. This temporary (or perhaps permanent) exile will be detrimental for the Sharifs’ political fortunes.

By not facing NAB cases against him the former prime minister will be presumed guilty as charged. A large swath of the electorate will rightly assume that he has no case. And that is why he is staying away.

Or conversely he is not willing to be incarcerated like Zardari was for more than a decade. Sharif, on the other hand, has simply taken the easy route instead of exhausting his legal options.

Some insiders claim that Sharif has been advised to stay away by the powers that be. Owing to overwhelmingly incriminating evidence against him, his freedom cannot be guaranteed after his return.

He has again summoned Shahbaz Sharif to London for further consultations. Hopefully the two brothers will be able to charter a roadmap for the PML-N in the run-up to the general elections.

For the time, PML-N policies, post Sharif, are in a twilight zone. Immediately after his ouster Nawaz Sharif announced in a meeting that his brother would succeed him as party president and as the prime ministerial candidate in the next general elections.

Initially, it was assumed that after contesting from NA-120 the younger Sharif will be the prime minister for the interim as well. However, presumably he declined, preferring to go for the permanent slot in the next general elections, only just a few months away.

But since then it seems that the elder Sharif has had second thoughts, perhaps in his anxiety to foist his daughter as party president and subsequently the party candidate for premiership. Without assigning any reason, the elections for party president that were due to be held on September 7 were postponed. Similarly, suddenly he went mum on Shahbaz Sharif’s presumptive candidature as the next prime minister. However the Senate, approving the Electoral Reforms Bill 2017 on Friday, paved the way for Nawaz to regain chairmanship of the party.

Unfortunately for Maryam she too is embroiled in NAB cases. Hence in the ultimate analysis Sharif will have to follow his better instincts.

It is another matter however if the Hudaibiya Paper Mills case and Model Town incident judicial inquiry report (in which 14 people lost their lives owing to indiscriminate police firing) embroils Shahbaz Sharif as well. Hence there is a remote possibility that the ruling party might be bereft of a Sharif candidate in the next general elections.

Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, while talking to the media on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, has ruled out any reshuffle in the cabinet. Does this mean that he intends to retain Ishaq Dar as finance minister?

Owing to Ishaq Dar’s absence from the country, NAB has issued warrants for his arrest and frozen his assets as well as bank accounts for non-appearance. Even if Dar was complying with the NAB summons and attending court his position as finance minister had already become untenable.

But owing to his present predicament he has no legs to stand upon. The honourable man that he claims to be he should have handed in his papers by now. But if this is not happening the prime minister should be showing him the door sooner than later.

Being accused of living beyond one’s means is a grave charge. According to court documents his assets have increased 91 fold in the past fifteen years. Certainly he has managed his own finances better than that of the country as its economic czar. Dwindling reserves, stagnant exports, below par revenue collection and an alarming increase in current account deficit are only some of the telltale signs of an economy heading south.

Dar deserves some brownie points for stabilising the economy and restoring a decent growth rate. But the overall macroeconomic picture is so murky that most economists contend that Pakistan will soon have to negotiate a new bail out program with the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

During a recent National Security Committee (NSC) meeting, when the military leadership demanded funds to replace its outdated equipment the finance minister plainly refused. He admitted that the economy was not in a good shape, attributing it to political instability rather than his policies.

Interestingly, Dar was stripped of his enormous powers as virtual deputy prime minister by Abbasi as soon as he took over. Surely this could not have happened without the explicit approval of the former prime minister, his samdhi as well.

Some say Dar’s star has been on the wane ever since it came to light that he was trying to cut a separate deal with the powers that be to save his own skin. Apparently Sharif was duly informed of this impending betrayal.

For multifarious reasons Dar’s position as finance minister has become quite untenable. Finance is the second most important portfolio after that of the prime minister. 

His role, apart from being the custodian of the economy, is to interact with the IFIs (International Financial Institutions) and the donor countries as well. The military is also an important stakeholder he has to deal with on a regular basis.

Unfortunately, Dar has lost credibility on all counts. Any further delay in naming his replacement would be further detrimental for the economy.

Several names are being bandied about to replace him. The criteria in appointing his successor however should not be loyalty but competence as well.

Dar is perhaps a good chartered accountant but is not a good finance minister. Nor is he a team player.

Having the ear of the prime minister he would cut out anyone who tried to interfere in his domain that he guarded so jealously. Few tears will be shed on his imminent departure.