China is Pakistan’s new United States

When it comes Islamabad’s counterterrorism policy, Pakistan should not expect any favors from Beijing

Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi during his recent address to the United Nations General Assembly said that Pakistan cannot become a ‘scapegoat’ in Afghanistan’s war. Moreover, during a brief meeting with the United States president, Donald J. Trump, Abbasi stressed on the need of a sustained cooperation between Washington and Islamabad on the issue of regional terrorism.

Does Pakistan’s recent efforts to reach out to Washington which has become obvious through statements such as Islamabad’s concern regarding “cleaning its own house,” help improve both countries bilateral relations? Even if Pakistan’s re-approachment toward the U.S. fails, can Islamabad rely on China and Russia, as far as the country’s strategic tilting is concerned?

Even if Pakistan moves away from the US and tilts toward China, the demands on the regional and international level are going to increase. For instance, Washington now claims that while Pakistan has done tremendous work on counter-terrorism front, the country has taken no action when it comes to targeting groups that Islamabad considers its allies. And this statement just not extends to the Haqqani network which often figures as part of US’s demands from Pakistan. The US now has begun to include other domestic groups that not only target Washington’s interests in the region but also continue to attack other regional states.

The problem here is not that Pakistan is not taking action against the groups which the U.S. and other states, such as Afghanistan, consider a threat. The conundrum here is strategic and much bigger. While Pakistan has been doing what it can do to ensure that such groups do not operate actively and are restrained on the country’s soil, Islamabad continually fails to convince the international world that it has actively sought to target all sorts of militant groups. Pakistan’s challenge as for as its counterterrorism efforts are concerned remains with projecting its Soft power image which is continuously being undermined by the active presence of militant groups in the country.

Even if Pakistan decides to further move toward Beijing’s sphere of influence, it doesn’t mean that the latter is not going to ask Pakistan for similar actions. China, at the recent BRICS summit, gave a first major public indication which highlights that the country is fast losing its patience when it comes to Pakistan’s inaction against militant organisations which Islamabad doesn’t see as a threat but present dangers to Beijing’s long-term regional interests.

Pakistan’s conundrum now stands with this question: Either Pakistan takes action against all militant groups or isolate itself not only regionally but at the global level too. One thing which Pakistan can’t afford right now is alienating China, that remains Pakistan’s primary economic lifeline if the country is to survive Washington’s pressures.

For instance, the recent efforts on the part of Islamist groups to join Pakistan’s political arena shows that the latter remains reluctant from containing all militant groups. It’s disturbing that not only a number of proscribed organisations were able to contest an election in the NA-120 by-election but were also able to secure considerable votes. Arguably, three mainstream parties were competing for the constituency. Two of the main political parties secured first two positions, and to everyone’s shock position number three and four went to parties which are proscribed militant organisations. What is further distressing is that the Pakistan’s Peoples Party that has ruled the country thrice in the past came on number five. According to some reports, around 11% of the constituency’s votes went to two religious parties. And one of those two parties had openly lauded Mumtaz Qadri for assassinating Salman Taseer in their campaign posters and the other is considered a terrorist organisation by the United Nations with.

Arguably, the votes which such parties managed to gather, are the challenge that the state will have to deal with, for going after hardline Islamist groups that have popular public support, is only going to create more counter-terrorism problems. As I have written elsewhere: “These recent attempts by militant groups to participate in a constitutional and legitimate political process not only shows that the state has failed to act against them, but also that it remains reluctant to introduce a comprehensive policy that would reduce the appeal of radical elements in the country.” I further noted that “For many, the failure of the government to respond to such statements shows that the state is still unwilling to abandon its policy of supporting militant groups as part of its security policy.”

In this troubling context Pakistan faces its toughest challenge: should the country act against these groups and isolate them or just allow them to operate and risk its own isolation?

Policy makers in Pakistan need to understand that the day such radical forces became a threat to China’s interests, Pakistan won’t be able to find another helping hand and action rather than inaction is the most feasible way to move forward