And the future
The Panama case seems to have had a limited impact on the ground in NA-120. There is a visible lot that has turned. Yes, they stuck with Nawaz Sharif even though he did nothing for the constituency in the thirty-something years that he’s been elected from there. Broken roads with ponds of sewage typify the area. And now that they’ve seen shades of the disputed wealth the Sharif family has clearly amassed – after having Nawaz elected from there, of course – they’ve had serous second thoughts.
But the diehards are more visible. They are the “PML-N is by blood group” types who stand in the sewage and promise to “vote for Nawaz Sharif forever”. These are the loyalists Maram Nawaz is counting on to deliver her a twin victory today; vindication for Nawaz and legitimacy for her politicking. Granted, by-elections are made for the incumbent, and she has had the official machinery doing much of her work. But she did have to shoulder the burden when everybody was needed elsewhere, and that deserves some credit. But, then, the party is also still reeling from the double whammy of Nawaz’s ouster and SC’s dismissal of the Sharif family’s (and Ishaq Dar’s) review petitions. Put the increased discontent, and splitting of the centre-right pro-mullah vote on top of it, and it might not be the usual cakewalk after all.
Even the most predicted scenario – a less imposing PML-N victory than ’13 – though, brings its share of problems for PML-N and the House of Sharifs. Top of the list is the (now widely reported) widening cleavage between Nawaz and Shahbaz and their families, particularly Maryam and Hamza. There’s also the matter of just how many senior PML-N leaders will do what practically all senior PPP leaders did when Bilawal was catapulted to the chairmanship – agree to work under a rookie, etc. There is also the outside chance of PTI pulling a huge upset. That would have far reaching consequences for PML-N, and more so for the Sharifs. That is why NA-120 stakes go far beyond the broken roads and sewage problems. And that is why the two leading contenders were relentless in their campaigning. Now it’s left for the vote to decide.