The battle for fortress NA-120

ECP failures and the reservations about the future

The results of the bye elections in NA-120 will have important implications for the PML-N and PTI. These will show how far the verdict of the Supreme Court disqualifying Nawaz Sharif has sullied the image of the former Prime Minister in the eyes of the voters. Even if Kalsum Nawaz wins the elections, as is being widely predicted, the ratio of votes cast for her would be compared to the one in 2013 elections. In case it turns out to be much smaller this would be interpreted as a slippage in the party’s standing among the voters. In 2013 elections Dr Yasmin Rashid got over 50,000 votes. Notwithstanding the fact that generally fewer votes are cast in bye elections, any significant decline in Rashid’s votes will indicate lesser enthusiasm among the PTI voters this time.

The results will have important implications for the ongoing rivalry between the house of Nawaz and that of Shehbaz. Kalsum Nawaz’s campaign is being run by Maryam with the help the former PM’s loyalists. Both Shehbaz and Hamza, the two political war horses, proceeded abroad at the start of the campaign. Kalsum Nawaz’s victory would open the way for Maryam being anointed as Nawaz Sharif’s political successor and possibly as the new PML-N chief. Her failure could jeopardise her political career.

While voters expect their candidates to care for their constituencies, they mostly support a party on the basis of its general outlook and overall performance. The PTI candidate’s sole emphasis is on the lack of civic amenities in NA-120 may not be enough to get it votes.

A weak-kneed ECP has failed to stop violations of election rules by the PML-N and the PTI. The PML-N ministers and MPs have frequently accompanied Maryam during the campaign. The ECP has done little other than issuing notices. This encouraged Imran Khan to conduct a rally right inside the constituency. How can the commission which has failed to ensure compliance with the election rules in a single constituency handle the 272 constituencies where direct elections are to be held in a few months?