Russia, Syria and Israel
With Syrian forces zeroing in on the last remaining al Qaeda and ISIS dustbin of Idlib, and the Iraqi army clearing the last of the militants from the rubble of Mosul, a new Middle East is, indeed, about to emerge. Though the Syrian regime dug in its heels even when it had no backers, its war effort has largely been enabled by Russian, and Iranian, help. And as the dust of the civil war gives way to new realities, one is a much more pronounced presence of Russia.
Moscow first came to the Middle East when Nasser invited them to rebuild the Egyptian army. Then they partnered with the Ba’athist regimes in Damascus and Moscow. And, of course, the USSR aided and armed Palestinian guerrillas as the Cold War grew to define the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well. But as the ‘80s saw Saddam and Arafat growing closer to Washington, and the Afghan war draining the Soviet Union, Moscow gradually withdrew from Arabia until Putin’s sharp rebuke of the Bush White House, business deals with Gulf monarchs and support to Hamas and Hezbollah. He even hosted Khaled Meshal in Moscow in ’06.
Now, Moscow’s footprint is much enhanced. As is Iran’s. Putin’s words to Netanyahu the other day, that Iran is Russia’s “strategic ally” in the region while Israel is an “important partner”, provide ample indication about the scheme of things to come. Remember, Syria’s is also now the most battle-hardened army in the region. And with the Chinese also joining their Russian strategic international partners in Syria, Damascus will have two permanent UN Security Council partners. The Americans, though, have still hedged their bets on the old guard – as indicated by the $300b or so arms sales to Riyadh. The new Middle East, it seems, will still keep some of the old themes.
