To borrow a phrase: Winter is coming
The civilian elite of Pakistan has been told by Chinese as well as other regional countries that these groups present more threats to Pakistan’s survival then India, China or Russia. However, the issue was taken as a breach of “national security” which apparently threatened the country’s “national interests.”
Pakistan’s isolation continues to grow with China and Russia now pushing Pakistan to give-up its alleged support for various militant groups operating domestically. The recent BRICS summit was distinct in a sense that it included a number of Pakistan based insurgent groups in its final statement. The statement said that various militant groups which continue to freely operate in Pakistan are a “threat to regional security.”
Some of the insurgent groups which were part of the BRICS counter terrorism agenda discussion have historically been considered close to the Pakistani state. For instance, the LeT and others sectarian groups which have been incorporated in the BRICS summit’s counter terrorism domain are those which at one point or the other have had deep ties with factions of Pakistan’s security establishment. While Pakistan has argued that the country doesn’t have any connection with any such groups, the LeJ and other prohibited networks active presence in the country clearly weakens Islamabad’s defence.
The inclusion of Pakistani based militant groups into BRICS summit’s final statement is important from many aspects and unfortunately alarming for Pakistan’s policy makers. First, the fact that Pakistan’s so called close regional allies – China and Russia – agreed to incorporate a number of Pakistani domestic groups into regional terrorism threat domain highlights that even Beijing and Moscow is unconvinced about Pakistan’s counter terrorism efforts.
For Pakistan, these groups might be an effective weapon to carry out low intensity conflict with India or other regional enemies. However, for other regional states, such as China and Russia, these groups only offer platform for radicalisation which has already threatened the region’s security to a great extent.
Second, by including the name of Pakistani insurgent groups, the BRICS group, particular China has sent a direct message to Islamabad that the latter’s “all weather ally” has its limits: If Pakistan didn’t cooperate or understood China’s security concerns through table talks then the latter won’t hesitate to take the issue to regional forums.
While the international community has been trying to convince Pakistan’s policy makers that any perceived utility of such insurgent groups has long passed, Islamabad continues to cling to its old regional and domestic security policies which have not only crippled Pakistan’s image abroad but have also mushroomed the country’s militantly challenges at home. One of the reasons that Pakistan has failed to act against a number of groups which are based in Punjab, the country’s most populous province, is due to such group’s popular support base in the region. Now this support base, which is in the form of millions of people ready to march into streets to act against the state’s any plan to cripple their ideological commitments present a dilemma for the ruling elite. Is there enough political will to take on such insurgent groups that enjoy broad support in society? In fact, the more important question should be that is the state ready to take action abasing such groups? If yes, then has the state given up its traditional policy of sustaining conflict with India? Is the state ready to move on toward more pressing issues that pose imminent threats to the country’s existence such as climate change, growing population, unemployment, poverty and bad economy? If no, then the state still believes that such groups should be kept operational even if the costs become higher then persevered utility. Unfortunately, there appears no effort to contain or eradicate the groups which the BRICS countries want Pakistan to act against – if not for the sake of regional security then for the country’s own future.
The Dawn’s leaks sage was basically what the BRICS summit has noted on a regional or perhaps on extra regional level. The civilian elite of Pakistan has been told by Chinese as well as other regional countries that these groups present more threats to Pakistan’s survival then India, China or Russia. However, the issue was taken as a breach of “national security” which apparently threatened the country’s “national interests.”
It’s the basic rule of the statecraft that countries don’t have permanent enemies or friends. Rather, a state’s working depends upon its interests. India and China which have had serious conflicts in the past, recently reconciled a major territorial dispute. Pakistan, on the other hand, continues to stick to an outdated policy which is based on the idea of keeping alive conflict with India even if it means the country’s entire domestic security, political, cultural and nationalistic debates are tied with New Delhi.
Pakistan needs to put its house in order before it’s too late. With China and Russia agreeing with India and other states that Pakistan should take action against LeJ and other sectarian groups, Islamabad seriously needs to review its domestic security policy.
