Absurdity all around
Unfortunately, the Trump administration’s senseless approach to the Afghan war, and everything associated of course, has prompted equally irrational reactions in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For one thing, what has made the new administration believe that doing what the previous two administrations did and failed, and calling it new, can get the job done this time? The Afghan Taliban have been on the ascent since the ’06 spring offensive, at least. And that trend has not changed since the first big drawdown, the subsequent upsurge, or the following thinning of numbers again. The guerilla force, now in control of more territory than any time in the war against terror, is unlikely to give up just because the new US president says he means business.
And what response did he think he would get from Pakistan? He’s not the first president to be frustrated by Islamabad. But while the two before him kept a working relationship, at least, even in far worse times, this one has upset the equation just when Pakistan had finally given up the alleged good Taliban habit and Rudd-ul-Fasaad was building up nicely on Zarb-e-Azb. Plus, now there’s nobody even remotely capable of bringing the Taliban to the table. And no matter how tough Trump talks, the Pentagon realised a while ago that this war will not end unless all sides get talking, and his generals would have told him so. So far, it’s more likely that he’s okayed US soldiers to come in harm’s way while cutting off the only way of easing them out of it.
And leaders of the two houses of parliament in Pakistan, threatening to deny air/road routes to the US, not to mentioning saying no to more aid, etc, forget that we have not yet grown out of the bind where we still need the Americans far more than they need us. We are still not only dependant on direct US largesse, but also its goodwill that is crucial in getting on the right side of international financial organisations. And dumping the deal with the US in favour of a new alliance with China and Russia is all fine; it makes sense on paper and regional groupings should always grow. But Pakistan is still a miniscule regional players compared to the other two, and will have to become a nation not struggling to survive without outside money if we are to move in such corridors. It is too early for a reset with the US. Saner heads and better diplomacy should prevail on all sides.