Future roadmap of the Sharifs

The former prime minister, Mian Nawaz, Sharif is celebrating Eid with his family in London. The ostensible purpose of his sojourn is to be with his ailing wife who is undergoing treatment for throat cancer at a London clinic.

Predictably his opponents are claiming that he has gone on a one-way ticket to the British capital into temporarily exile. But as one of his loyalists and close associates has clarified Sharif will be back soon as he has no reason to stay away for long.

Whatever the former prime minister’s future plans, while away from it all, ensconced in his Mayfair abode, he will have plenty of time for introspection. This is what has been hitherto conspicuously missing. In the wake of the Panama leaks Sharif, as prime minister, lacked a coherent plan to deal with the impending crisis.

There were glaring contradictions in his initial response. Offering himself for accountability, he failed to realise that the gauntlet that had been thrown at him would make it impossible for him to walk the talk.

The legal team defending him lacked the competence and the vision as well. They exuded the same kind of tentative behaviour as their client.

Entirely divorced from reality, the Sharif clan distributed sweets after the split-decision verdict of the five-member bench of the apex court hearing the Panama case. The family’s lawyers simply failed to explain to them that the three members of the bench ordering to form a joint investigation team (JIT), including representatives from the ISI (inter services intelligence) and the MI (military intelligence), would seal their fate.

It was only a fresh legal team headed by a new lawyer that explained to Sharif that he was facing a grave legal challenge, which could possibly result in his disqualification as prime minister. But by then perhaps it was too late for him to smell the coffee beans.

After the event, when it is too late, the former prime minister and his stalwarts are complaining about the role of the army controlled intelligence agencies in the JIT.

Post disqualification of their leader the PML-N has adopted a confrontationist strategy. All along GT (grand trunk) road, on his return from Islamabad to Lahore, Sharif adopted an aggressive posture. He claimed that he had been ousted though a conspiracy for doing well for the country.

While addressing a gathering of lawyers in Lahore he openly attacked the five-member bench that disqualified him on the basis of not declaring to the Election Commission that he was a beneficial owner of a Dubai-based company. Sharif also laments that none of the elected prime ministers in Pakistan’s checkered political history has ever been allowed to complete the mandated term.

It is obvious now that Sharif and his stalwarts blame the judiciary in cahoots with ubiquitous establishment for his premature ouster. Even if true this is a dangerous route to tread upon.

In the past an overbearing military leadership refused to give space to the civilian leadership. Most of them, considered corrupt, incompetent and perhaps a security risk, were shown the door.

But only nine months ago Sharif, while refusing to extend the tenure of General Raheel Sharif as COAS, handpicked General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Apparently the army chief and the prime minister had very cordial relations.

So what went wrong? Sharif perhaps reckons that it is a systematic failure that none of the elected prime ministers has been able to get along with successive military chiefs.

But the manner in which he is attacking the judiciary, and implicitly the army leadership, may land him into bigger trouble than he presently is. Thanks to his actions the so-called nexus might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sharif, while in London, must ponder and count his blessings. He should thank his stars that unlike the past practice the parliament and the PML-N government at the federal level and in the Punjab is intact.

However, if he continues on his present suicidal path those who are master manipulators will not let his party remain united. In that case not only the PML-N government but also the present system might be jeopardised. Sharif should know better than most that most of his party men are fellow travelers and political opportunists bereft of any ideological bent.

There is talk of a possibility of a national government or the so-called government of technocrats. Quite a few out of job politicians and members of the business elite subscribe to this fallacious idea.

Of course such a set up, like in the past, will be a non-starter. But this will be scant succour for those who believe in an unfettered parliamentary system.

The biggest loser in such a worst case scenario will be the PML-N itself. The Sharif family will be in the political boondocks while political pygmies will be benefitting at their expense.

Sharif unfortunately is surrounded by political hardliners who would love to settle their own personal scores with the establishment. Some directly affected by the Dawngate are in the forefront of those egging on the former prime minister to become a revolutionary.

Had it not been for the army chief intervening, those found guilty in the Dawngate would have been hauled up under the official Secrets Act 1923 that entails the maximum penalty of a death sentence. Sharif’s grouse that he has been a victim of a grand conspiracy might be well founded. But exigencies of realpolitik demand that he should not end up throwing the baby with the bath water.

Apparently post-Eid the younger Sharif will join his brother in London. This will be a great opportunity for them to charter their future course of action.

The younger Sharif, fortunately, has his feet firmly on the ground. He fully understands the intricacies of power politics in Pakistan. Instead of lending his ears to soldiers of fortune and sycophants the elder Sharif should heed the sane advice of his younger brother.

The political hyenas are out to get the younger Sharif as well. Their logic is simple. Unless both the Sharifs are out – not politically but through their shenanigans and the courts — they cannot rule the roost in future elections.

For the Sharifs the next few months are crucial for their political survival. A clear roadmap needs to be chalked out based on ground realities.