Despite the judicious planning by the Planning Commission of Pakistan, one very potent factor that has inhibited economic growth remains largely undealt with-climate change.
As the earth heats up it adversely affects our agriculture which till today has remained the greatest contributor to our economy. Global warming isn’t just increasing our temperatures, it is also affecting the time and quantity of rains, wind patterns etc.
Temperatures in Pakistan have reached an all-time high with Mohenjo-Daro reaching 53.5oC the fourth highest ever recorded temperature in Asia. In 2015, the severe heat wave that struck southern Pakistan caused temperatures to rise to 490C, caused more than 1,200 deaths in Karachi alone. The high temperatures are disrupting the overall environmental cycle; too few rains, floods and drought, simultaneously.
While the amount of rainfall has started to dwindle or increase significantly, there are long months of drought as well. It is surprising to note that a country that is considered water scarce is regularly facing floods as well. This can be contributed to the government’s planning as well that is insufficient in mitigating the effects of erratic rain and water scarcity. According to Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013, more than 3,000 people were killed because of floods in 2010, 2011 and 2012 and a loss of $16 billion was incurred.
Floods aren’t only caused by the momentous rains but also because of the rivers flooding as a result of melting glaciers. Not only are they causing the sea levels to rise but the fresh water that can be used for domestic use gets dumped in the sea after causing a considerable amount of damage to the country. According to Nasir Pahnwar, an environmental expert, data from independent surveys have shown that 3.1 million acres of agricultural land around Badin, Thatta and Sujawal districts have submerged in sea.
Climate change is said to decrease livestock production by 20%-30% in the coming years. This is bound to cause shortages of meat, milk and poultry supplies causing price surge and affecting an average consumer in the economy.
Overall, it is predicted that by the end of 21st century, the agricultural sector alone would lose about $2-$15 billion/annum as a result of climate change.
Socio-economic problems
The effects of global warming can be seen as translating into different socio-economic conflicts because of the resources that increasingly become scarce translating into conflicts over resources. Pakistan has a fair share of people living below the poverty line (60 million as of 2016) and more keep adding to these numbers. Poverty thwarts economic growth and with scant resources and power shortages, rising unemployment and inequitable health facilities, these people take to the streets.
According to Ghulam Rasul, Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Department, “Most societal disruptions in and around drought-stricken areas are caused by migration between new settlers (refuge seekers) and settled people. The nature of conflict is the scarcity of resources-which now have to be used between two groups of people. Theft and in-fighting soon follows.”
Recently, during Ramazan protests ensued in Karachi and Badin as Sindh plunged to darkness causing water shortages for the duration of the electricity outage. 70% of the country’s economic hub was affected by the breakdown. These power outages cause total shutdowns at construction sites, businesses etc. Protests in Karachi have almost always caused clashes with law enforcement agencies, resulting in fatalities. With heat waves hitting country more than once, power outages further exacerbate the problem.
Real Estate Sector
Interestingly, the effects of climate change on real estate are also very profound and are borne as costs for how construction will be carried out around these areas, transportation costs etc.
From this it is apparent that the main problem of climate change arises because of increasing sea levels causing cost hikes for real estate developers. Houses, apartments, etc. have to be made flood resistant and to also withstand the humidity levels. This is a problem faced by the real estate market of Karachi as well. Previously it had always attracted a large pool of investors but now more investors are attracted towards Gwadar.
In Karachi Shireen Jinnah Colony and Keti Bunder’s settlements are one of the most prominent examples of these. In mid 1990s Karachi Port Trust decided to take the area around Shireen Jinnah Colony and was seemed to have been reclaimed successfully by making it safe from tides, however, it proved to be faulty when high speed waves inundated through the wall against the shore. In Keti Bunder out of 48 settlements, 34 have been submerged into the sea, causing 60,000 people to be displaced from their homes.
Climate change is happening right now and it’s effecting all of us. If it continues to go unnoticed then it will cause problems that are beyond anyone’s control to reverse. “Pakistan has all the right laws for establishment of climate resistant infrastructure, especially houses, however, it is very hard to regulate the kacchi abadis of fishermen along the coast lines,” Rasul said.
“During the 2007 tropical cyclone that hit Karachi, bill boards were flying like razor blades, cutting across vehicles and people on foot. Various buildings were also damaged. We need strong infrastructure that can withstand all climate changes, now that this is going to be a common occurrence,” he added.
When talking about how real estate is being affected by climate change he highlighted, “Real estate prices are highly susceptible to the strength of houses, whether or not they can withstand climate changes. In most northern areas, houses are built on slopes, however, flash floods and landslides mostly wash these away. This inhibits realty sector development in these areas.”
Rasul and many others in the government are of the view that climate change has emerged as a national issue. He believes that the compensation given to flood victims and drought-stricken people aren’t sustainable measures and that the government needs to take concrete steps towards mitigating the dire effects of climate change.