Pakistan’s all weather friend and strategic ally China was quick to come to Pakistan’s defence after US President Donald Trump unfairly castigated Pakistan during the unveiling of the long awaited US strategy on Afghanistan. China defended Pakistan after Trump declared unequivocally that the United States could no longer be silent about Pakistan’s “safe havens” for militants and warned it had much to lose by continuing to “harbour terrorists”.
Taking a U-turn from his much touted position on the issue, Donald Trump committed the United States to an open-ended conflict in Afghanistan, signalling he would dispatch more troops to America’s longest war and vowing “a fight to win”. Trump insisted that others – the Afghan government, Pakistan, India and NATO allies – step up their own commitment to resolving the 16-year conflict, but he directed harsh derision for Pakistan. Senior US officials warned security assistance for Pakistan could be reduced unless the nuclear-armed nation cooperated more in preventing militants from using safe havens on its soil.
Some Indian backed observers in the US opine that Pakistan perceives militants such as the Taliban as useful tools to limit the influence of arch rival India. Pakistan denies allowing militants refuge on its territory, saying it takes action against all groups across the board, without distinction.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying was unambiguous in her declaration at the daily news briefing that Pakistan was on the front line in the struggle against terrorism and had made “great sacrifices” and “important contributions” in the fight. She urged the international community that China believes that the world should fully recognize Pakistan’s concerted anti-terrorism efforts. China reiterated that it appreciates that Pakistan and the United States carry out anti-terror cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, and work together for security and stability in the region and world.
China has its own security concerns in the region, in particular, any links between militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan and Islamist groups China blames for violence in its far western region of Xinjiang. It is a stakeholder for peace in Afghanistan. Numerous Chinese projects including the One Belt One Road and China Pakistan Economic Corridor are affected negatively because of conflict in Pakistan. Earlier China had joined the Quadrilateral Coordination Group along with the US and Pakistan to secure peace in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the efforts had come to naught because after the first round of talks at Murree in Pakistan, detractors of the peace process had leaked the news of Taliban Emir, Mullah Umar’s demise. Pakistan and China were trying to convince the Taliban leadership to join the peace talks again but the US scuttled the process by successfully targeting Mullah Umar’s successor Mullah Akhtar Mansour, with a missile launched by a drone when he was returning after talks in Iran.
There are two other aspects regarding Trump’s new Afghan strategy, which should worry China.
Firstly that Donald trump pointed out that Afghanistan was rich in minerals and China was taking advantage of the situation to establish mining development centres while the US was busy fighting wars. Secondly that the US would no longer involve itself with “nation building” in Afghanistan but instead focus on killing terrorists.
As far as the first aspect is concerned, it has come to light that the US was fully aware of the presence of rich mines in Afghanistan and that was its clandestine rationale to invade it in 2001 so that it could control the natural resources. Subsequent US presidents failed in securing peace in Afghanistan so that they could exploit Afghanistan’s mineral wealth but they are not willing to let go either and would like to maintain their foothold so that they may benefit from Afghanistan’s affluence in subsurface possessions. At the end of the day, Donald Trump is a trader and weighing profit and loss has made him overturn his election campaign promises of swiftly ending US presence in Afghanistan in favour of supporting an open ended conflict and dispatching additional troops to the battle weary zone.
By declaring that the US is no longer interested in nation building in Afghanistan, Donald Trump has negated the earlier stated principles of the US government that it owed it to the Afghan people to rebuild their war ravaged country and give it a modicum of stability. Firstly, even when the US forces were at their full complement of 100,000 in Afghanistan, following President Obama’s troop surge, the US and NATO forces failed to subdue the Taliban. Sixteen years after the invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban have regenerated and regrouped to not only control more than fifty percent of Afghan territory but have become a force to reckon with. Its current troop strength of 8,400, augmented by an additional 3,900 will be cannon fodder against the well-equipped and battled hardened guerrilla forces of the Taliban. The much touted Afghan National Army (ANA), trained and armed with state-of-the-art weaponry have been no match for the Taliban. More than 2,500 soldiers and officers of the ANA have been slaughtered in one year by the Taliban. A sizable number have deserted with their weapons to join the Taliban. In such a dismal milieu, US forces hold little chances of success. They should instead focus on seeking peace with the Taliban and perhaps Pakistan can facilitate the process but the US should stop using Pakistan as a scapegoat for its failures in Afghanistan.
While acknowledging Pakistan’s efforts and sacrifices in War on Terror as a US ally, Trump said that Pakistan has “much to gain” from partnering with the US, but also warned “it has much to lose by continuing to harbour criminals and terrorists.” However the State Department came up with a much more practical and diplomatic statement. Rex W. Tillerson , Secretary of State highlighted key elements of the Trump’s policy as: New integrated strategy for the U.S. approach to South Asia will require diplomatically engaging Pakistan, Afghanistan and India to create the conditions for stability in the region. It signals clear support for the Afghan people and government and security forces in their fight against terrorists and prevent the reestablishment of safe havens in the country.
The signals emanating from White House, Capitol Hill and mainstream media on ‘US policy on Afghanistan’ point to a rather frustrated and confused mindset. Trump made a speech as the C in C of US military and expected rhetoric should be seen in that perspective, his speech also addressed a divided domestic polity; however it is expected that some Pakistani, Indian and international media outlets would use cherry picking to assault Pakistani military and ISI, we should be ready to bear the heat and develop a counter narrative. Pakistani media should also come forward to support Pakistan’s position on Afghanistan. International community should also ponder on the prolonged Afghan conflict; If US led military alliance of 46 countries could not stem the tide of insurgency after spending almost one trillion dollars over a period of 16 years, what do they expect from Pakistan? On its part Pakistan Army has done a tremendous job by successfully combating against terrorists on its own soil. Time has come to appreciate the strategic environment in Afghanistan and find a political solution to the imbroglio by taking all stake holders on board, there is no other way.
