What’s next?

It’s a game of snakes and ladders

Imran Khan’s path to victory in the next general election, set for mid-2018, is far from assured.

August 1977; Z.A. Bhutto started from Rawalpindi to Karachi, by train, for his show of power. August 2017; Nawaz Sharif travels via G.T. Road from Rawalpindi to Lahore, for his show of power.

For whom was this show intended? The courts, the army or the opposition? It’s undecided.

Challenging institutions is never in national interest. The leaders are to strengthen the institutions not to weaken those. Weak institutions are dangerous and can’t defend the country.

We are located in a very strategic path of the world, we need to be strong – which is why state institutions are formed. If the leadership tries to make them weaker, that leadership should be turned down from the political sphere of the country.

They’re not the first, trying to reorient around a person who has been disqualified from the parliament and is declared dishonest. But to this small group of renegade thinkers, that claim him in the right, Nawaz Sharif represents the foundation of what they say “a new path of development”, which they claim he proved during last 32 years in power.

Building on Nawaz Sharif’s populist appeal, they are attempting what many of their fellow have told them is an impossible, even foolish undertaking. They are making the intellectual case for a man who is the ultimate anti-intellectual.

Imran Khan gives voice to a growing genre of intellectual thinking that wants the right to be less oriented to the leaders that builds the coalition of social, fiscal and national security conservatives and more focused on the country’s self-interest.

Decision of the Supreme Court to disqualify Nawaz Sharif, his family and Ishaq Dar from holding office over allegations of corruption is a triumph for the rule of law. Corruption charges on the Prime Minister are a depressing addition in Pakistan’s history. PML-N has taken it as a smack of political infighting. The ensuing confusion is in no one’s interest.

On 28 July, Moeed Pirzada drew the attention of the panel to the similitude between Al Capone and NS as far as “technical” factor being given importance in the disqualification of NS. None of the panelists – including Ayaz Amir – picked up the cue. The similitude seems very appropriate for our politicians.

Al Capone was a mafia don in the twenties of the last century, guilty of crimes like murder, kidnapping, sponsoring brothels and boot legging, among many other crimes. There were 267 cases registered against him, but he was not convicted in 265 cases because he had bought the mayor of Chicago, the police, judiciary and all other institutions. But in the end two cases of minor nature caught up with him. One was tax evasion and the other contempt of court. He was consequently convicted by an independent judge for 11 years imprisonment in 1931.

Our politicians including Nawaz Sharif are guilty of a large number of crimes including mega corruption. For 32 years Nawaz Sharif escaped the law because like Al Capone, he managed to scare and buy all institutions except the Army (and now the judiciary). But finally, just as in the case of Al Capone, the law has finally caught him, even if it is for a minor offence. The substantive aspect of the judgment lies in the corruption references, which the SC could not adjudicate under Article 184-3.

It must be strange and shocking for Nawaz Sharif that the state of affairs that the best hope on all these fronts after Sharif’s fall from power, remarkably, his third ouster, things don’t get worse.

Nawaz Sharif raised high hopes in 2013 when he assumed office in a peaceful transfer of power; a prime minister in Pakistan has yet to finish a full five-year term. He had stated that he will be the first to complete five years as Zardari did in presidency.

At the same time Nawaz Sharif had been grooming his daughter, Maryam Safdar, to succeed him instead of Hamza Shahbaz. But the Supreme Court also disqualified Maryam and two of her brothers from political office. The case against the family was based on disclosures last year in the Panama Papers which revealed that the children owned expensive properties in London through offshore companies, trail of money is still missing which caused the present situation.

Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shahbaz Sharif was considered the main successor. Shahbaz is regarded as a competent administrator, and he would probably had been more acceptable to the public as well the opponents, but the luck fell in favour of Shahid Khaqan Abbassi, an obedient, die-hard aide of Sharif. Nawaz will remain the head of the governing political party, the PML-N and is not likely to vanish. Unfortunately our political system encircles around one person. PPP around Bhuttos, actual or siblings, and PML-N around Nawaz Sharif. There’s only one political party which works exactly in democratic way, “Jamiat-e- Islami”, there’s no hierarchy system there.

The New York Times writes;

“However unpromising the prognosis, a switch at the top does create opportunities for some change of course. The Trump administration should make every effort to persuade Mr Sharif’s successor that eradicating terrorists in Afghanistan is in the interests of both countries. On the domestic front, Pakistan’s civilian leaders, for all their flaws, have at times tried to improve relations with India and to loosen the grip of the military, as Mr Sharif did. With national elections scheduled for 2018, his rise and fall should at least generate a national debate on how Pakistanis want to be ruled.”

In 1992, when Pakistan won its only Cricket World Cup, the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was asked by a television host if the team captain, Imran Khan, a national heartthrob, would be right for his party if Mr Khan went into politics.

“I offered him a long time ago, but he declined. I don’t know why,” Nawaz said, patting Imran’s shoulder as everyone who had gathered around burst into laughter

Imran Khan, a charismatic athlete did go into politics a few years later through his own party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or P.T.I.

On 28th July 2017, a five member bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, headed by Justice Asif Saeed Khosa, unanimously ruled that corruption accusations against Nawaz Sharif, a veteran politician who thrice served as prime minister and has defined Pakistan’s politics for decades, were sufficient to remove him from the office.

For Imran Khan, the moment was a success. He had been the main petitioner before the court and fomented widespread protests against Nawaz Sharif, emerging as the strongest challenger to the former prime minister and his political legacy.

But Imran Khan’s path to victory in the next general election, set for mid-2018, is far from assured. Even with disqualification and Panama Papers scandal, PML-N, the ruling party, has deep roots especially in Punjab. Securing 221 votes is thoughtful for Imran Khan to set a strategy for the next elections 2018. Every time he can’t stand blaming rigging in elections.

The Supreme Court has directed the accountability court to decide corruption cases against Nawaz Sharif and his family within six months. But there is skepticism that the courts will reach a decisive verdict against the Sharif family and speculation that even if Nawaz Sharif cannot run again, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Party will continue to dominate Parliament.

When Imran Khan started the P.T.I. party in 1996, he was considered a political nobody and squirmed on the sidelines for decades. His party had just one seat in Parliament after the 2002 elections and boycotted the 2008 elections.

Not until 2011 did Mr Khan find himself center stage as he captured the public’s imagination and began drawing hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis to his political rallies. Most people in the audiences were educated, urban youths, disgruntled with the system and energised by Mr Khan’s populist, anticorruption message. The party also picked up vast support among the Pakistani expatriate community, and Mr Khan’s supporters are dominant on social media.

Despite his huge urban base, Imran Khan has found it hard to prevail over Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Party, especially in Punjab, the former prime minister’s power base, and two other provinces.

Sharif remains deeply entrenched through a vast network of political patronage. His party won the 2013 general elections with an overwhelming majority. Imran Khan’s party currently holds just 33 of the 342 seats in the National Assembly.

But since the last elections, Imran Khan has been at the forefront of political opposition to Sharif, portraying him as the face of the status quo and corrupt practices that have gnawed at the political system.

In many ways, Imran Khan did not let Mr Sharif settle into office. His popular agitation kept the prime minister perpetually unsettled and fighting to gain traction despite his party’s success at the polls. The situation was made more difficult by Mr Sharif’s constant friction with the powerful military, elements of which favor Mr Khan.

Soon after the elections, Imran Khan accused Nawaz Sharif of vote rigging. In 2014 he led thousands of protesters in a siege of Islamabad, the capital, for months.

Shortly after the Panama Papers revelations, Mr Khan rushed towards the Supreme Court to take up the corruption case against Nawaz Sharif, which culminated in the prime minister’s ouster.

Imran Khan, the opponents say, has no experience with governing and has shown an aptitude more for street agitation than working with Parliament to bring about change. But Imran Khan has proved his governance in the province of KPK, over and above, he is not corrupt like traditional politicians and point to his philanthropic work as proof that he will do more good for the country.

PML-N has a clear majority in the Parliament and Punjab. Early next year it is also expected to have a majority in the Senate, the upper chamber, where it currently has only one seat fewer than the Pakistan Peoples Party.

Nawaz Sharif’s party can survive if the transition to his successor is smooth and energy and infrastructure projects are completed well before the next elections.