Well, this just got awkward
For quite some time, it has been an open secret that PML-N has two major factions. The one ruling at the federal level has been run by the older Sharif and the one ruling at the provincial level has been controlled by the younger Sharif, with an understanding between both. But … that didn’t mean that younger Sharif’s faction never had desire to jump to the federal level.
The Supreme Court of Pakistan has ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif over allegations of corruption and money laundering abroad. The unceremonious ouster of Sharif from the office third time, comes at a time when Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz is facing internal and external challenges.
So where did it all begin for Nawaz Sharif during the third term in office? Sharif’s troubles began when he went after Pervez Musharraf to launch a treason investigation right after coming to power in 2013. Second most important thing that can be termed a strategic miscalculation was Sharif’s early desire to bring change in Pakistan security and foreign policy. The mere decision of not appointing the foreign minister was intended to send a message to the establishment that this time around, Sharif meant business. Essentially, the establishment was never going to give Sharif enough room to actually implement policies that were on collision course with the military’s choices. In 2014 came the Islamabad sit-in which resulted in Sharif making a deal with the then military’s leadership that included Musharraf’s exit from the country in exchange for the termination of Imran Khan’s sit-in. From then on, Sharif continued to run from one crisis or miscalculation to another crisis or miscalculation. The establishment on the other hand didn’t let any crisis fade without isolating Sharif gradually to an extent that he became dependent on it for his survival.
Now regardless of the debate that this gives Imran Khan a fair chance to make some gains in general elections next year, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz has been shaken to its core in a number of ways. In this regard, the most important debate right now is that who will lead the party with the court disqualifying Sharif for life from holding public office?
For quite some time, it has been an open secret that PML-N has two major factions. The one ruling at the federal level has been run by the older Sharif and the one ruling at the provincial level has been controlled by the younger Sharif. Up until the Panama issue came along, the understanding that was emerging in the party’s inner circle, proposed the continuation of same tradition with the second generation of the Sharif family: Prime Minister Sharif’s daughter was being groomed to take a major role at the federal level while Shahbaz Sharif’s son, Hamza Shahbaz, who has already been playing a key role in Punjab’s provincial affairs, was recommended for Punjab.
However that doesn’t mean that younger Sharif’s faction never had desire to jump to the federal level. While Shahbaz Sharif has always had back of his brother, he has never liked Nawaz’s policy of confrontation with the military. It’s one of the reasons that Shahbaz is favoured in military circles which have also been speculated as his behind the scene dealings with the establishment against his own party’s leadership.
Now the situation appears very interesting: while Nawaz and his close associates have been eliminated by the court, Shahbaz should be eyeing a chance at the federal level. However, he doesn’t and should not be looking to takeover immediately. With Nawaz disqualified for life and his daughter facing further NAB probe in the corruption case, Shahbaz faction has a clear and legitimate opportunity to take over the party come the next general elections. From how it appears, the younger Sharif doesn’t need to plot anything, it’s the nature of the situation that has brought him at the centre of the party’s helm of affairs regardless of what Nawaz wants or prefers.
Ironically, no one inside or outside the PML-N needs to cook any formula whose final result will exclude Nawaz Sharif from the future of the party. In fact, it’s the Supreme Court’s verdict that has already implemented minus-one formula for the ruling party. Even if Sharif wanted to bring someone from his own political circle instead of Shahbaz, he cannot do so, for that would mean further divisions inside the party.
Moreover, the immediate challenge for the ruling party now also deals with successfully retaining all winnable candidates for the next general elections. The political opposition, particularly Imran Khan, should be looking to placate the ruling party’s non-ideological factions. It appears likely that if the ruling party failed to generate the perception of unity, it’s going to lose a number of electable candidates before the next general elections.
The last thing the ruling party wants is to allow Khan to come to power on its behest. To that extent, there will be a united and resolute front to keep the party united and challenge Khan and other political opposition with full force.
The next few weeks will determine if the ruling party can recover from the loss of its leader or the internal divides will further fragment it.