Finally, it comes
Washington’s decision to withhold $50m from Coalition Support Fund (CSF) payments comes at an awkward time for Islamabad as the ruling party is neck deep in a domestic political crisis; and the prime minister might be forced out of office. This is the Trump administration’s first substantial decision regarding Pakistan. And with the White House review of the South Asia strategy still going on, this could set the stage for things to come. Defence Secretary James Mattis’s predecessor, Ash Carter, also got Congress to block $300m in CSF funding.
Regardless of what Pakistan has not has not done against the Haqqani Network, it clearly has to ‘do more’ to convince its most significant military and financial patron. And it’ll have to do so quickly. Once Washington’s review is complete, it is expected to come down hard on the Afghan juggernaut. Trump is already reeling from failure to honour campaign promises; and fresh from the sting on Obamacare repeal, he is unlikely to tolerate any dilly-dallying on the matter of wrapping up the longest war in US history. He’s already moving pieces across the board; telegraphing a troop increase, appointing a new ambassador to Afghanistan, etc.
Pakistan cannot even pretend it can survive without outside money, especially with its own existential war — though going well enough — still showing no signs of ending. Eventually, with or without the Americans, Pakistan and Afghanistan will have to settle on a way of ending this long war. It would have ended some time ago, for all intents and purposes, had one’s enemy not continued to find shelter in the other’s country. Hopefully this time the Americans can prove to be the lubricant that reduces Islamabad-Kabul friction to a workable level.