Nawaz Sharif’s future hangs in the balance

Not much longer now

If one is to follow the trail of the evidence gathered by JIT, then it becomes apparent that the court cannot neglect PM’s questionable role

On Friday, the Supreme Court of Pakistan, which has been hearing the Panama Papers Case against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s immediate family after the Joint investigation Team’s report, reserved its judgment. It’s likely that the court will announce its final verdict in the next few days.

What is central here for both the ruling party and the opposition is the court’s ruling over the role of the prime minister in the entire corruption scandal. Will the court consider PM’s disqualification at all? If one is to follow the trail of the evidence gathered by JIT, then it becomes apparent that the court cannot neglect PM’s questionable role. The opposition is not looking for a decision that declares PM’s sons culprits in the case; rather the whole battle is to get PM either resign from the office or get him out through a court order.

Moreover, the important aspect which the court is going to consider is that what has really transpired in terms of gathering more evidence in the last few months that can lead to PM’s disqualification. Moreover, it’s also important to understand that whether the court is considering PM’s sons alleged role as evidence against Nawaz Sharif or not. If the court considers Sharif’s sons alleged role as a direct involvement of Prime Minister Sharif then it’s likely that Supreme Court may consider disqualifying him. On the other hand, if the court is going to probe PM’s role independently then it’s possible that the case may be sent for trial.

The context of PM indulging in corruption while in office has been quite interesting. His legal team has by and large been focused on the point of reminding the court that the PM’s role should be seen in the backdrop of his time in office. But even this angle becomes tricky for the constitution clearly asks that any lawmaker or person holding public office should be an honest person. So in this context, even if PM has not done any corruption while in office, he still simply lied about his previous investments abroad which have been disclosed by the Panama Papers and remained undeclared in the election commission.

Besides legal and constitutional reasons, there are political aspects which are going to be an essential part of the while nature of the verdict. The ruling party wouldn’t mind if PM’s both sons become target of the verdict and are implicated in a sense that only prolongs the punishment or further trial. As long as, the judgment is not requiring PM’s resignation or infect opens criminal investigations against him, the ruling would welcome any verdict.

Let’s consider the scenario in which the court gives out a verdict disqualifying PM Sharif. How will such a decision impact Pakistan’s political atmosphere in general? Will the ruling party accept the verdict that asks for PM’s disqualification? What will be the constitutional basis for rejecting such a decision for the ruling party? Or will the ruling party simply look to violate the constitution by undermining the court’s decision by declaring its ruling unfair and biased, based on JIT’s finings that were political and vengeful in nature? With mounting political, media and civil society’s pressure, it won’t be an easy task for PM to hold on to power even after the country’s highest court wants him to resign. The PTI particularly will take to streets with other political joining in to ensure that the court’s verdict is implemented..

The military establishment should be looking at the situation as an interested party with stakes involved. The situation that is afoot right now in the country is the situation which the establishment favours in general. A political party with a deep political mandate which can threaten the military’s strategic security and economic policies has never been appreciated or approved by the establishment. As long as, the ongoing political scuffle does not lead to a major political crisis where all sides refuse to compromise, the military is not going to interfere. Any likely interference will come if the underlying political instability takes the shape of an unanticipated crisis which forces the military for direct or indirect intervention.

A political party with a deep political mandate which can threaten the military’s strategic security and economic policies has never been appreciated or approved by the establishment

At this point, any verdict be it one that lets PM off the hook or discredits him by handing over a disqualification, appear likely. So far, the case has been bombarded with accusations and all sorts of evidence that it no longer appears logical or apolitical.

It would be wise if the court released its judgment as soon as possible, for any looming political instability and confusion will not be in the country’s interest. Moreover, it would be a positive step forward towards the development of democracy in Pakistan and intuitional building if all political parties accepted the court’s decision.